Who to start · 2025-26
Mattias Samuelsson vs Tom Wilson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.
This week Samuelsson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Wilson has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. We project Wilson for 3.8 ESPN points to Samuelsson's 2.0.
Tom Wilson has the better number in 21 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 −0.07, Faceoffs won 0, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.067.
Wilson's biggest edges: Power-play share 59.7%, Fenwick 55.8%, Power-play time per game 2:49.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Tom Wilson
2.20
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Samuelsson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.99 | 0.37 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Samuelsson vs Wilson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Samuelsson 0G 3A, 13 SOG · Wilson 6G 3A, 21 SOG
On the ice against each other (Samuelsson's side)
11:02 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Samuelsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–6
- 62.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.2
- 82.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Samuelsson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | BUF 2–6 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-12 | BUF 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-11-01 | BUF 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-30 | BUF 8–5 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-06 | BUF 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-14 | BUF 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-22 | BUF 3–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-02-26 | BUF 7–4 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-03-25 | BUF 3–4 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Tom Wilson
2games
3.8proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWvs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 ptsOpp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%Likely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mattias Samuelsson or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mattias Samuelsson or Tom Wilson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 21 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Samuelsson and Wilson done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Samuelsson's team went 4–5. Samuelsson had 3 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 9 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →