Draw Duel
Keegan Kolesar faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
38.1%
90%: 32.4%–44.1% vs an average regular, on 81 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
38.7%
12 won of 31 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
41.7% / 0.0%
24 strong-side, 3 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Kolesar wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| OZ right | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| Centre | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| DZ left | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ right | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R30.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R31.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.7%
- Jack Drury NSH · L31.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L51.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L50.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L49.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L47.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R47.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38.7% 31 | 38.7% 31 | — 0 | — 0 | 20.0% 10 | 50.0% 14 | 42.9% 7 | 41.7% 24 | 0.0% 3 |
| 2024-25 | 33.3% 18 | 33.3% 18 | — 0 | — 0 | 33.3% 9 | 42.9% 7 | 0.0% 2 | 23.1% 13 | 66.7% 3 |
| 2023-24 | 40.0% 15 | 41.7% 12 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 33.3% 6 | 60.0% 5 | 25.0% 4 | 36.4% 11 | 0.0% 1 |
| Playoffs (all) | 47.1% 17 | 50.0% 16 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 25.0% 4 | 58.3% 12 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 6 | 50.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson | 1–2 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 45.3% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Mark Jankowski | 1–2 | 33.3% | 36.5% | 36.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Sam Bennett | 0–3 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 41.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Mason McTavish | 1–1 | 50.0% | 39.8% | 39.8% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Logan Cooley | 1–1 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 45.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jonathan Toews | 0–2 | 0.0% | 30.1% | 30.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Nazem Kadri | 0–2 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Brendan Gaunce | 1–1 | 50.0% | 35.7% | 35.7% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Radek Faksa | 1–1 | 50.0% | 34.4% | 34.4% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Mathieu Joseph | 1–0 | 100.0% | 47.4% | 47.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Michael McLeod | 0–1 | 0.0% | 38.9% | 38.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Nico Hischier | 0–1 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 30.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | vs CAR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-06 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | @ CAR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-24 | vs COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ ANA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | vs ANA | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | vs ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | vs ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs WPG | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Keegan Kolesar's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Keegan Kolesar's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Keegan Kolesar win tonight?
When Keegan Kolesar has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Keegan Kolesar better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.