Draw Duel
Liam O'Brien faceoff stats, 2025-26
UTA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
—
Only 41 draws in the last four seasons: too few for a rating.
2025-26 FO%
66.7%
6 won of 9 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
100.0% / 66.7%
2 strong-side, 3 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where O'Brien wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| OZ right | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| Centre | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ right | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R31.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L31.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R32.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L32.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L32.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L51.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L50.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L48.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L48.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R48.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66.7% 9 | 66.7% 9 | — 0 | — 0 | 75.0% 4 | 60.0% 5 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | 66.7% 3 |
| 2024-25 | 0.0% 4 | 0.0% 4 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 |
| 2023-24 | 21.4% 28 | 23.1% 26 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 20.0% 10 | 30.0% 10 | 12.5% 8 | 30.8% 13 | 9.1% 11 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gustafsson | 1–1 | 50.0% | 36.1% | 36.1% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Mark Jankowski | 0–2 | 0.0% | 35.4% | 35.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Erik Haula | 2–0 | 100.0% | 38.8% | 39.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Lars Eller | 0–2 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 0–1 | 0.0% | 42.5% | 42.4% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Michael Amadio | 0–1 | 0.0% | 41.9% | 41.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Tommy Novak | 0–1 | 0.0% | 39.0% | 38.9% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Nicolas Roy | 1–0 | 100.0% | 39.8% | 39.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 0–1 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 33.9% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Tyson Jost | 1–0 | 100.0% | 36.0% | 36.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Cody Glass | 0–1 | 0.0% | 37.7% | 37.7% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Morgan Frost | 0–1 | 0.0% | 29.3% | 29.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | vs NSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | @ CAR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | @ NSH | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | vs DAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | vs TOR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | vs NSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-12 | vs SEA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | @ SEA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | @ CHI | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-29 | vs PIT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Liam O'Brien's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Liam O'Brien's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Liam O'Brien win tonight?
When Liam O'Brien has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Liam O'Brien better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.