Who to start · 2025-26
Alex DeBrincat vs Dylan Larkin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week DeBrincat has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project DeBrincat for 2.3 ESPN points to Larkin's 2.2.
Alex DeBrincat has the better number in 23 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
DeBrincat's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.060, Forecheck xG /60 0.34, Expected goals 53.1%.
Larkin's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 789, Penalty minutes 48, Hardest shot 91.7.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alex DeBrincat
2.31
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Alex DeBrincat has the edge.
| Points per game from | DeBrincat | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: DeBrincat vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
DeBrincat 9G 16A, 56 SOG · Larkin 5G 7A, 50 SOG
DeBrincat blocked 1 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 2 of DeBrincat's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
106:32 at 5-on-5 over 31 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 118–93
- 55.9%
- Expected goals
- 6.5–4.2
- 60.6%
- Goals
- 5–6
Games against each other
| Date | Score | DeBrincat | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-28 | OTT 6–1 DET | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-31 | OTT 2–4 DET | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-02-27 | OTT 6–2 DET | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-12-17 | OTT 6–3 DET | 0G 3A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-01-26 | CHI 8–5 DET | 2G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-24 | CHI 3–6 DET | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2021-04-17 | CHI 4–0 DET | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-15 | CHI 1–4 DET | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-02-17 | CHI 2–0 DET | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-02-15 | CHI 3–2 DET | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-01-24 | CHI 6–2 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-01-22 | CHI 4–1 DET | 0G 2A 4S | 1G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alex DeBrincat
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alex DeBrincat or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alex DeBrincat or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Alex DeBrincat leads in 23 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have DeBrincat and Larkin done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, DeBrincat's team went 13–5. DeBrincat had 25 points (9 goals) and Larkin had 12 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →