Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Samuelsson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: Power-play share 81.1%, Power-play time per game 3:58, Offensive-zone time 44.0%.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Hits 132, Hardest shot 98.1, Top skating speed 22.8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.21
fantasy points per game
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.34 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.93 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 8G 8A, 49 SOG · Samuelsson 2G 2A, 25 SOG
Guentzel blocked 0 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 5 of Guentzel's.
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
20:28 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 27–14
- 65.9%
- Expected goals
- 1.1–0.5
- 70.6%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | TBL 2–4 BUF | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-08 | TBL 7–8 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-02-28 | TBL 2–6 BUF | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4–3 BUF | 1G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7–4 BUF | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-04-05 | TBL 2–3 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-06 | TBL 6–5 BUF | 3G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-01-06 | PIT 1–3 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-11-24 | PIT 2–3 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-11 | PIT 4–0 BUF | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-10 | PIT 3–1 BUF | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-12-09 | PIT 4–3 BUF | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to D
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to D
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 8–8. Guentzel had 16 points (8 goals) and Samuelsson had 4 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →