Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Andrew Cogliano faceoff stats, 2023-24

COL · C · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

37.8%

90%: 32.2%–43.8% vs an average regular, on 174 draws since 2023-24

2023-24 FO%

33.1%

54 won of 163 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

39.2% / 21.7%

79 strong-side, 60 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Cogliano wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

38% · 13— · 9— · 4— · 342% · 24— · 7— · 335% · 5524% · 45
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Andrew Cogliano faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left13538.5%
OZ right9222.2%
NZ left (att.)4250.0%
NZ right (att.)300.0%
Centre241041.7%
NZ left (def.)7571.4%
NZ right (def.)300.0%
DZ left551934.5%
DZ right451124.4%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2023-2433.1% 16335.8% 53— 031.8% 11031.8% 2241.5% 4130.0% 10039.2% 7921.7% 60
Playoffs (all)27.3% 1140.0% 5— 016.7% 633.3% 325.0% 425.0% 40.0% 130.0% 10

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Joel Eriksson Ek1–712.5%36.6%36.2%a bit unusual (z -1.4)
Dylan Strome4–357.1%36.9%37.2%a bit unusual (z 1.1)
Tomas Hertl1–516.7%32.9%32.7%normal luck (z -0.8)
Ryan O'Reilly1–325.0%33.1%33.0%normal luck (z -0.3)
Brayden Point1–325.0%43.0%42.8%normal luck (z -0.7)
Elias Lindholm2–250.0%33.5%33.6%normal luck (z 0.7)
Matt Duchene1–325.0%32.0%32.0%normal luck (z -0.3)
Mark Scheifele2–250.0%41.9%42.0%normal luck (z 0.3)
Jamie Benn1–325.0%30.7%30.7%normal luck (z -0.2)
Timo Meier0–30.0%43.4%43.1%a bit unusual (z -1.5)
Claude Giroux0–30.0%29.6%29.4%a bit unusual (z -1.1)
Nazem Kadri2–166.7%46.1%46.3%normal luck (z 0.7)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2024-05-17vs DAL010.0%
2024-05-15@ DAL020.0%
2024-05-09@ DAL1333.3%
2024-05-07@ DAL020.0%
2024-04-30@ WPG11100.0%
2024-04-28vs WPG1250.0%
2024-04-18vs EDM030.0%
2024-04-14@ VGK1333.3%
2024-04-09vs MIN010.0%
2024-04-07vs DAL020.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Andrew Cogliano's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Andrew Cogliano's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Andrew Cogliano win tonight?

When Andrew Cogliano has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Andrew Cogliano better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.