Draw Duel

Carter Verhaeghe faceoff stats, 2025-26

FLA · C · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

42.0%

90%: 38.0%–46.1% vs an average regular, on 309 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

34.2%

39 won of 114 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

35.1% / 29.0%

77 strong-side, 31 weak-side draws this season

Next game

0.7 FOW

2026-10-04 vs ANA: 1 draws at 44.7%, range 0–2

Where Verhaeghe wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.

Show as a table

Carter Verhaeghe faceoff win % by dot
Dot	Draws	Won	FO%
OZ left	65	23	35.4%
OZ right	14	3	21.4%
NZ left (att.)	0	0	—
NZ right (att.)	1	0	0.0%
Centre	6	3	50.0%
NZ left (def.)	1	0	0.0%
NZ right (def.)	2	1	50.0%
DZ left	12	4	33.3%
DZ right	14	5	35.7%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Claude Giroux OTT · R33.7%
Aatu Räty VAN · L34.4%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R34.7%
Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.1%
J.T. Miller NYR · L35.3%
Auston Matthews TOR · L35.5%

Easiest

Jack Hughes NJD · L54.9%
Noah Ostlund BUF · L54.6%
Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.5%
Danila Yurov MIN · L51.8%
Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.5%
Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.3%

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
Season	All	EV	PP	PK	OZ	NZ	DZ	Strong	Weak
2026-27	0.0% 1	0.0% 1	— 0	— 0	— 0	— 0	0.0% 1	0.0% 1	— 0
2025-26	34.2% 114	35.8% 81	33.3% 30	0.0% 3	32.9% 79	40.0% 10	36.0% 25	35.1% 77	29.0% 31
2024-25	36.4% 44	29.4% 34	60.0% 10	— 0	46.2% 26	10.0% 10	37.5% 8	46.7% 30	10.0% 10
2023-24	44.0% 84	43.1% 72	50.0% 12	— 0	52.8% 53	30.0% 20	27.3% 11	54.7% 53	29.2% 24
Playoffs (all)	34.8% 66	36.5% 52	28.6% 14	— 0	36.4% 44	28.6% 14	37.5% 8	42.9% 42	14.3% 14

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
Opponent	Record	Raw	Model	Blended	Unusual?
Sebastian Aho	1–6	14.3%	40.9%	40.5%	a bit unusual (z -1.4)
Claude Giroux	0–7	0.0%	31.9%	31.4%	a bit unusual (z -1.8)
Brady Tkachuk	3–3	50.0%	35.9%	36.0%	normal luck (z 0.7)
Macklin Celebrini	4–1	80.0%	49.5%	49.8%	a bit unusual (z 1.4)
Dylan Cozens	1–4	20.0%	42.9%	42.6%	a bit unusual (z -1.0)
Sean Monahan	0–5	0.0%	37.2%	36.8%	a bit unusual (z -1.7)
Auston Matthews	2–3	40.0%	38.8%	38.8%	normal luck (z 0.1)
Noel Acciari	1–3	25.0%	38.5%	38.4%	normal luck (z -0.6)
Brayden Point	1–3	25.0%	46.3%	46.1%	normal luck (z -0.9)
Michael McCarron	0–4	0.0%	38.3%	38.0%	a bit unusual (z -1.6)
Mikael Backlund	2–2	50.0%	48.3%	48.4%	normal luck (z 0.1)
Mark Jankowski	2–2	50.0%	38.2%	38.3%	normal luck (z 0.5)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
Date	Opp	FOW	Draws	FO%
2026-09-29	@ CAR	0	1	0.0%
2026-04-09	@ OTT	1	9	11.1%
2026-04-07	@ MTL	1	2	50.0%
2026-04-05	@ PIT	1	3	33.3%
2026-04-04	@ PIT	0	2	0.0%
2026-04-02	vs BOS	0	1	0.0%
2026-03-31	vs OTT	5	11	45.5%
2026-03-29	@ NYR	2	3	66.7%
2026-03-28	@ NYI	0	2	0.0%
2026-03-24	vs SEA	0	2	0.0%

Projected faceoffs won

2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (38%), Mikael Granlund (45%)0.7 FOW 0–2
2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (48%), Erik Haula (44%)0.7 FOW 0–2
2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (47%), Ryan Hartman (46%)0.7 FOW 0–2

FAQ

What is Carter Verhaeghe's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Carter Verhaeghe's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Carter Verhaeghe win tonight?

When Carter Verhaeghe has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Carter Verhaeghe better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.