Draw Duel

Colin Blackwell faceoff stats, 2025-26

DAL · C · Right shot · full player page

Model rating

46.6%

90%: 43.5%–49.7% vs an average regular, on 735 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

43.2%

124 won of 287 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

39.6% / 25.0%

230 strong-side, 4 weak-side draws this season

Next game

0.8 FOW

2026-10-05 vs SJS: 1 draws at 50.2%, range 0–2

Where Blackwell wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.

Show as a table

Colin Blackwell faceoff win % by dot
Dot	Draws	Won	FO%
OZ left	1	1	100.0%
OZ right	31	17	54.8%
NZ left (att.)	1	0	0.0%
NZ right (att.)	21	10	47.6%
Centre	53	32	60.4%
NZ left (def.)	0	0	—
NZ right (def.)	16	9	56.3%
DZ left	2	0	0.0%
DZ right	162	55	34.0%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Claude Giroux OTT · R38.2%
Aatu Räty VAN · L38.5%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.2%
J.T. Miller NYR · L39.5%
Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.7%
Auston Matthews TOR · L39.7%

Easiest

Jack Hughes NJD · L59.6%
Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.3%
Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.1%
Danila Yurov MIN · L56.4%
Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.1%
Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.9%

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
Season	All	EV	PP	PK	OZ	NZ	DZ	Strong	Weak
2026-27	0.0% 1	0.0% 1	— 0	— 0	— 0	0.0% 1	— 0	0.0% 1	— 0
2025-26	43.2% 287	48.7% 197	0.0% 2	31.8% 88	56.3% 32	56.0% 91	33.5% 164	39.6% 230	25.0% 4
2024-25	49.0% 308	48.4% 184	66.7% 3	49.6% 121	53.1% 49	45.2% 73	49.5% 186	50.8% 254	40.0% 5
2023-24	45.7% 70	50.0% 52	— 0	33.3% 18	50.0% 32	50.0% 6	40.6% 32	43.9% 66	50.0% 2
Playoffs (all)	50.7% 69	58.0% 50	— 0	31.6% 19	55.6% 9	56.3% 32	42.9% 28	48.9% 45	66.7% 3

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
Opponent	Record	Raw	Model	Blended	Unusual?
Leon Draisaitl	8–13	38.1%	42.3%	42.1%	normal luck (z -0.4)
Brayden Schenn	9–7	56.3%	45.5%	45.8%	normal luck (z 0.9)
Joel Eriksson Ek	3–12	20.0%	47.0%	46.2%	unusual (z -2.1)
Adam Henrique	8–7	53.3%	43.0%	43.3%	normal luck (z 0.8)
Jack Drury	6–8	42.9%	38.5%	38.6%	normal luck (z 0.3)
Brock Nelson	3–11	21.4%	47.7%	47.0%	a bit unusual (z -2.0)
Ryan O'Reilly	4–10	28.6%	43.4%	43.0%	a bit unusual (z -1.1)
Tomas Hertl	6–7	46.2%	41.3%	41.4%	normal luck (z 0.4)
Elias Pettersson	4–9	30.8%	49.3%	48.9%	a bit unusual (z -1.3)
Logan Cooley	6–6	50.0%	55.0%	54.8%	normal luck (z -0.3)
Vincent Trocheck	7–4	63.6%	44.8%	45.2%	a bit unusual (z 1.3)
Ryan Donato	7–3	70.0%	52.1%	52.4%	a bit unusual (z 1.1)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
Date	Opp	FOW	Draws	FO%
2026-10-03	@ NSH	0	1	0.0%
2026-04-30	@ MIN	0	1	0.0%
2026-04-28	vs MIN	2	4	50.0%
2026-04-25	@ MIN	1	1	100.0%
2026-04-22	@ MIN	1	1	100.0%
2026-04-20	vs MIN	2	3	66.7%
2026-04-18	vs MIN	3	6	50.0%
2026-04-13	@ TOR	0	2	0.0%
2026-04-11	vs NYR	1	3	33.3%
2026-04-09	vs MIN	3	4	75.0%

Projected faceoffs won

2026-10-05 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (50%), Macklin Celebrini (49%)0.8 FOW 0–2
2026-10-08 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (45%), Ryan McLeod (46%)0.8 FOW 0–2
2026-10-10 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (41%), Ben Kindel (55%)0.7 FOW 0–2

FAQ

What is Colin Blackwell's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Colin Blackwell's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Colin Blackwell win tonight?

When Colin Blackwell has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Colin Blackwell better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.