Draw Duel
Ryan Donato faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
43.6%
90%: 40.9%–46.4% vs an average regular, on 1,115 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
46.7%
170 won of 364 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
52.5% / 31.6%
217 strong-side, 79 weak-side draws this season
Next game
1.4 FOW
2026-10-06 vs STL: 3 draws at 49.9%, range 0–3
Where Donato wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 118 | 65 | 55.1% |
| OZ right | 21 | 7 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
| Centre | 68 | 31 | 45.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
| DZ left | 72 | 35 | 48.6% |
| DZ right | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L36.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R36.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 25.0% 4 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 46.7% 364 | 47.2% 320 | 41.9% 43 | 100.0% 1 | 51.8% 139 | 43.1% 123 | 44.1% 102 | 52.5% 217 | 31.6% 79 |
| 2024-25 | 44.6% 525 | 43.5% 400 | 48.7% 119 | 33.3% 6 | 46.9% 260 | 41.3% 126 | 43.2% 139 | 50.0% 324 | 33.8% 130 |
| 2023-24 | 44.1% 222 | 44.4% 180 | 43.2% 37 | 40.0% 5 | 44.7% 103 | 41.9% 62 | 45.6% 57 | 48.6% 140 | 34.0% 47 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | 7–11 | 38.9% | 49.0% | 48.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 10–7 | 58.8% | 48.8% | 49.1% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 6–10 | 37.5% | 39.2% | 39.1% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 3–13 | 18.8% | 37.7% | 37.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 6–8 | 42.9% | 36.5% | 36.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Ryan Hartman | 6–7 | 46.2% | 51.0% | 50.9% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 3–10 | 23.1% | 37.0% | 36.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Jack Drury | 1–11 | 8.3% | 41.6% | 40.8% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Jack Eichel | 8–4 | 66.7% | 48.2% | 48.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Barrett Hayton | 4–8 | 33.3% | 41.4% | 41.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Brayden Schenn | 6–6 | 50.0% | 42.0% | 42.2% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Nazem Kadri | 4–7 | 36.4% | 42.9% | 42.8% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ BUF | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ VGK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs SJS | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BUF | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs CAR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ SJS | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ SEA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ EDM | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (43%), Mason McTavish (50%)1.4 FOW 0–3
- 2026-10-08 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (42%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (36%)1.2 FOW 0–3
- 2026-10-10 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (42%), Sebastian Aho (47%)1.3 FOW 0–3
FAQ
What is Ryan Donato's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan Donato's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan Donato win tonight?
When Ryan Donato has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan Donato better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.