Draw Duel
Matt Savoie faceoff stats, 2025-26
EDM · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
39.0%
90%: 33.7%–44.7% vs an average regular, on 88 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
40.0%
32 won of 80 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
42.1% / 40.0%
57 strong-side, 10 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Savoie wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| OZ right | 31 | 12 | 38.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| Centre | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ right | 18 | 8 | 44.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R31.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L31.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L32.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L32.6%
- Jack Drury NSH · L32.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L51.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L50.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L48.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L48.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R48.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 40.0% 80 | 41.3% 63 | 57.1% 7 | 20.0% 10 | 42.4% 33 | 38.5% 26 | 38.1% 21 | 42.1% 57 | 40.0% 10 |
| 2024-25 | 66.7% 6 | 66.7% 6 | — 0 | — 0 | 75.0% 4 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 100.0% 2 |
| Playoffs (all) | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cates | 4–1 | 80.0% | 44.3% | 44.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Rodrigo Abols | 0–4 | 0.0% | 38.4% | 38.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Jack Eichel | 1–3 | 25.0% | 41.5% | 41.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Leo Carlsson | 1–2 | 33.3% | 46.3% | 46.2% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Dylan Holloway | 1–2 | 33.3% | 41.6% | 41.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Ryan McLeod | 1–2 | 33.3% | 39.0% | 38.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Macklin Celebrini | 0–2 | 0.0% | 40.8% | 40.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jonathan Toews | 1–1 | 50.0% | 28.2% | 28.2% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Brett Howden | 2–0 | 100.0% | 39.2% | 39.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Tomas Hertl | 1–1 | 50.0% | 34.7% | 34.8% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Ryan Strome | 2–0 | 100.0% | 43.9% | 44.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Erik Haula | 1–1 | 50.0% | 39.6% | 39.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs CHI | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs SEA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs ANA | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | @ VGK | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ UTA | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs SJS | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Matt Savoie's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matt Savoie's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matt Savoie win tonight?
When Matt Savoie has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matt Savoie better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.