Draw Duel
Ryan Strome faceoff stats, 2025-26
CGY · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
43.9%
90%: 41.7%–46.1% vs an average regular, on 2,133 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.8%
186 won of 406 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.1% / 48.1%
237 strong-side, 81 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.0 FOW
2026-10-04 vs SEA: 8 draws at 46.9%, range 1–7
Where Strome wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 36 | 16 | 44.4% |
| OZ right | 108 | 47 | 43.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 22 | 13 | 59.1% |
| Centre | 88 | 33 | 37.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 18 | 8 | 44.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 10 | 66.7% |
| DZ left | 23 | 12 | 52.2% |
| DZ right | 92 | 44 | 47.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 40.0% 15 | 42.9% 14 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 44.4% 9 | 25.0% 4 | 50.0% 2 | 37.5% 8 | 40.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 45.8% 406 | 46.5% 372 | 36.7% 30 | 50.0% 4 | 43.8% 144 | 45.6% 147 | 48.7% 115 | 48.1% 237 | 48.1% 81 |
| 2024-25 | 41.7% 1226 | 41.2% 1040 | 43.0% 151 | 51.4% 35 | 38.2% 497 | 42.5% 322 | 45.2% 407 | 40.8% 644 | 42.9% 357 |
| 2023-24 | 46.1% 486 | 46.4% 371 | 43.3% 97 | 55.6% 18 | 43.4% 219 | 44.2% 113 | 51.3% 154 | 47.7% 287 | 45.4% 130 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | 11–23 | 32.4% | 37.5% | 37.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Nazem Kadri | 14–18 | 43.8% | 48.1% | 47.8% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Quinton Byfield | 15–13 | 53.6% | 47.6% | 47.9% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Dylan Larkin | 14–11 | 56.0% | 40.2% | 41.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Mark Scheifele | 10–13 | 43.5% | 45.9% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Roope Hintz | 10–13 | 43.5% | 40.3% | 40.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jack Eichel | 10–13 | 43.5% | 45.6% | 45.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Nico Hischier | 9–13 | 40.9% | 37.9% | 38.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Connor McDavid | 9–12 | 42.9% | 45.4% | 45.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Marco Rossi | 9–12 | 42.9% | 47.3% | 47.1% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Tomas Hertl | 11–9 | 55.0% | 39.9% | 40.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Jordan Staal | 5–15 | 25.0% | 35.5% | 35.1% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ VAN | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs SEA | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs LAK | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs UTA | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ SEA | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ DAL | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ ANA | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ VGK | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ COL | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs VAN | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (42%), Matty Beniers (46%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (45%), Nathan MacKinnon (47%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (38%), Mikael Granlund (46%)3.8 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Ryan Strome's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan Strome's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan Strome win tonight?
When Ryan Strome has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan Strome better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.