Draw Duel
Reilly Smith faceoff stats, 2025-26
VGK · R · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
36.3%
90%: 30.9%–42.1% vs an average regular, on 88 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
32.1%
17 won of 53 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
37.0% / 25.0%
27 strong-side, 12 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Smith wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| OZ right | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 14 | 4 | 28.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| DZ right | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R28.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L29.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R29.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R29.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L30.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L30.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L49.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L48.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L47.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L45.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L45.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R45.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 32.1% 53 | 33.3% 51 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 43.5% 23 | 21.7% 23 | 28.6% 7 | 37.0% 27 | 25.0% 12 |
| 2024-25 | 36.4% 11 | 33.3% 9 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 40.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 33.3% 3 | 40.0% 5 | 33.3% 6 |
| 2023-24 | 26.3% 19 | 27.8% 18 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 18.2% 11 | 60.0% 5 | 0.0% 3 | 20.0% 10 | 25.0% 8 |
| Playoffs (all) | 20.0% 5 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 25.0% 4 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy | 2–3 | 40.0% | 37.2% | 37.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Luke Glendening | 0–4 | 0.0% | 32.5% | 32.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 1–3 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| John Tavares | 0–4 | 0.0% | 31.0% | 30.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Michael McCarron | 3–0 | 100.0% | 32.7% | 33.1% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Cody Glass | 2–0 | 100.0% | 35.1% | 35.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Alex Turcotte | 0–2 | 0.0% | 41.3% | 41.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Sam Carrick | 1–1 | 50.0% | 33.6% | 33.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Juho Lammikko | 0–2 | 0.0% | 43.6% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Oskar Sundqvist | 1–1 | 50.0% | 41.2% | 41.2% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Quinton Byfield | 1–1 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Auston Matthews | 0–2 | 0.0% | 34.2% | 34.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | vs UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | @ LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | vs LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-01 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs SEA | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | @ MTL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-25 | @ OTT | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | @ TOR | 2 | 10 | 20.0% |
| 2026-01-19 | vs PHI | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | vs NSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Reilly Smith's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Reilly Smith's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Reilly Smith win tonight?
When Reilly Smith has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Reilly Smith better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.