Draw Duel
Alex Turcotte faceoff stats, 2025-26
LAK · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.9%
90%: 47.9%–53.9% vs an average regular, on 656 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.1%
257 won of 475 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.3% / 48.2%
218 strong-side, 168 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs FLA: 8 draws at 53.3%, range 1–7
Where Turcotte wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 130 | 68 | 52.3% |
| OZ right | 51 | 25 | 49.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 23 | 12 | 52.2% |
| Centre | 89 | 49 | 55.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 23 | 12 | 52.2% |
| DZ left | 59 | 46 | 78.0% |
| DZ right | 71 | 32 | 45.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R42.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R43.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L44.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L63.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L62.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R60.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L60.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 61.1% 18 | 61.1% 18 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 8 | 75.0% 8 | 50.0% 2 | 71.4% 7 | 50.0% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 54.1% 475 | 53.7% 464 | 70.0% 10 | 100.0% 1 | 51.4% 181 | 52.4% 164 | 60.0% 130 | 58.3% 218 | 48.2% 168 |
| 2024-25 | 45.5% 121 | 44.1% 111 | 60.0% 10 | — 0 | 44.4% 45 | 46.3% 54 | 45.5% 22 | 49.0% 49 | 45.7% 46 |
| 2023-24 | 50.0% 42 | 50.0% 42 | — 0 | — 0 | 44.4% 9 | 70.6% 17 | 31.3% 16 | 60.9% 23 | 27.3% 11 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman | 7–7 | 50.0% | 53.7% | 53.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Ryan Poehling | 5–9 | 35.7% | 51.5% | 51.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Morgan Frost | 7–7 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Mason McTavish | 8–4 | 66.7% | 53.2% | 53.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Mikael Granlund | 6–5 | 54.5% | 54.3% | 54.3% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Nazem Kadri | 7–4 | 63.6% | 55.0% | 55.2% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Zack Ostapchuk | 5–5 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 51.6% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Matty Beniers | 8–2 | 80.0% | 54.8% | 55.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Colton Sissons | 5–5 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 6–4 | 60.0% | 58.6% | 58.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 4–5 | 44.4% | 50.9% | 50.8% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Adam Gaudette | 4–5 | 44.4% | 53.6% | 53.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ SJS | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ COL | 10 | 12 | 83.3% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs STL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs PHI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ NYR | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs MTL | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-05 | vs NYI | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-03-02 | vs COL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | vs CGY | 1 | 8 | 12.5% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (51%), Aleksander Barkov (48%)4.2 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (53%), William Karlsson (49%)4.1 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Alex Turcotte's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alex Turcotte's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alex Turcotte win tonight?
When Alex Turcotte has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alex Turcotte better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.