Draw Duel
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff stats, 2025-26
SJS · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.3%
90%: 45.4%–51.2% vs an average regular, on 798 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.6%
236 won of 457 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.1% / 41.5%
210 strong-side, 130 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.6 FOW
2026-10-05 vs DAL: 10 draws at 48.4%, range 2–8
Where Ostapchuk wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 67 | 40 | 59.7% |
| OZ right | 24 | 5 | 20.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 11 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| Centre | 117 | 60 | 51.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 23 | 17 | 73.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 98 | 54 | 55.1% |
| DZ right | 89 | 39 | 43.8% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 22.2% 18 | 30.8% 13 | — 0 | 0.0% 5 | 0.0% 2 | 42.9% 7 | 11.1% 9 | 16.7% 6 | 12.5% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 51.6% 457 | 53.4% 380 | 50.0% 4 | 42.5% 73 | 49.5% 91 | 54.7% 179 | 49.7% 187 | 58.1% 210 | 41.5% 130 |
| 2024-25 | 48.6% 282 | 48.3% 271 | 25.0% 4 | 71.4% 7 | 52.8% 72 | 43.8% 137 | 53.4% 73 | 56.8% 125 | 43.1% 72 |
| 2023-24 | 26.8% 41 | 26.8% 41 | — 0 | — 0 | 18.8% 16 | 35.3% 17 | 25.0% 8 | 15.4% 13 | 26.3% 19 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 9–9 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 52.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Tomas Hertl | 8–9 | 47.1% | 44.3% | 44.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nick Suzuki | 8–7 | 53.3% | 49.9% | 50.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Adam Henrique | 6–8 | 42.9% | 44.5% | 44.4% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Fedor Svechkov | 10–2 | 83.3% | 59.8% | 60.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Elias Pettersson | 7–4 | 63.6% | 52.9% | 53.1% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Jack Finley | 4–6 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 48.8% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Alex Turcotte | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Dylan Cozens | 5–4 | 55.6% | 49.4% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Colton Sissons | 4–5 | 44.4% | 44.1% | 44.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| John Beecher | 2–7 | 22.2% | 48.7% | 48.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Mason McTavish | 6–3 | 66.7% | 50.8% | 51.0% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs LAK | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs FLA | 0 | 7 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ WPG | 5 | 14 | 35.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ CHI | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ NSH | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs VAN | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ ANA | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs EDM | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs CHI | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs NSH | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (51%), Roope Hintz (48%)4.6 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (46%), Mason McTavish (52%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (48%), Owen Michaels (58%)5.3 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Zack Ostapchuk's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Zack Ostapchuk's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Zack Ostapchuk win tonight?
When Zack Ostapchuk has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Zack Ostapchuk better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.