Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)13.37.7−5.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dontayvion WicksWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)14.64.8−9.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik HeathWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Xavier GipsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)22.127.7+5.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)14.516.5+2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Charlie JonesWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)15.52.0−13.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.03.5−2.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.94.5−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Emari DemercadoRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.61.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.97.9+5.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.65.2+1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik CunninghamWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)8.916.5+7.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)8.116.5+8.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.23.3+2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.01.6−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)2.69.9+7.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)3.50.0−3.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)3.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)5.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.2)18.021.5+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.2)18.723.1+4.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)9.223.2+14.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)1.43.0+1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tejhaun PalmerWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.215.3+9.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.73.1−4.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)8.32.2−6.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4MarShawn LloydRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)7.09.9+2.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)7.68.2+0.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.2)15.726.2+10.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)9.89.7−0.1pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)7.923.6+15.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Savion WilliamsWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Phil MafahRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)3.118.3+15.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)0.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)16.845.2+28.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)12.89.1−3.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kaleb JohnsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.22.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.828.0+19.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quentin SkinnerWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dalen CambreWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Beaux CollinsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.212.2+10.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.0)5.03.5−1.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mark RedmanTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.24.9+4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.511.7+1.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.713.5+7.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dohnte MeyersWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Makai LemonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)8.45.7−2.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nicholas SingletonRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.50.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4J. Michael SturdivantWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeremiyah LoveRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.96.5−6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malachi FieldsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)6.713.2+6.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tanner KoziolTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh CameronWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)3.16.2+3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4C.J. WilliamsWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik McClainWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marlin KleinTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate BoerkircherTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)2.02.5+0.5pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Omar Cooper Jr.WR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brandin CooksWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)4.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Mike EvansWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)12.712.4−0.3pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Michael BurtonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.2)10.720.4+9.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)11.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)14.614.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.98.3+6.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.60.0−2.6voidBacktest (after the fact) ·

NewerPage 2 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse