Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to MacKinnon's 2.2.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: Shorthanded points 1, Faceoff win % 52.9%, Penalty minutes 48.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Scoring chances 59.3%, High-danger chances 54.8%, Offensive-zone start % 71.8%.
Head to head on the dot, Larkin leads MacKinnon 68–49.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.17
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.93 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 2G 10A, 31 SOG · MacKinnon 15G 12A, 74 SOG
Larkin's offensive zone 26–9 · neutral 23–19 · Larkin's defensive zone 19–21 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Larkin blocked 0 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Larkin's.
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
17:31 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 15–14
- 51.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.8
- 46.4%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | DET 2–0 COL | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2026-01-31 | DET 0–5 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2025-03-25 | DET 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-07 | DET 1–2 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-02-22 | DET 2–1 COL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 11S |
| 2023-03-18 | DET 1–5 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 2A 3S |
| 2023-01-16 | DET 3–6 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 2A 5S |
| 2021-12-10 | DET 3–7 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2020-03-02 | DET 1–2 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2020-01-20 | DET 3–6 COL | 1G 2A 3S | 2G 0A 8S |
| 2019-03-05 | DET 3–4 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2018-12-02 | DET 0–2 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 6S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 2–12. Larkin had 12 points (2 goals) and MacKinnon had 27 (15 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Larkin or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Larkin has won 68 and MacKinnon 49 of their 117 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →