Draw Duel

Adrian Kempe faceoff stats, 2025-26

LAK · R · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

36.7%

90%: 32.3%–41.3% vs an average regular, on 202 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

36.2%

54 won of 149 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

34.5% / 50.0%

110 strong-side, 16 weak-side draws this season

Next game

0.6 FOW

2026-10-06 vs FLA: 2 draws at 39.2%, range 0–2

Where Kempe wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.

Show as a table

Adrian Kempe faceoff win % by dot
Dot	Draws	Won	FO%
OZ left	77	29	37.7%
OZ right	12	4	33.3%
NZ left (att.)	9	0	0.0%
NZ right (att.)	0	0	—
Centre	23	8	34.8%
NZ left (def.)	4	2	50.0%
NZ right (def.)	0	0	—
DZ left	23	9	39.1%
DZ right	5	4	80.0%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Claude Giroux OTT · R29.0%
Aatu Räty VAN · L29.5%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R29.8%
Vincent Trocheck UTA · R30.3%
J.T. Miller NYR · L30.4%
Auston Matthews TOR · L30.6%

Easiest

Jack Hughes NJD · L49.5%
Noah Ostlund BUF · L49.1%
Trevor Zegras PHI · L48.0%
Danila Yurov MIN · L46.3%
Pavel Buchnevich STL · L46.0%
Calum Ritchie NYI · R45.8%

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
Season	All	EV	PP	PK	OZ	NZ	DZ	Strong	Weak
2026-27	50.0% 4	50.0% 2	50.0% 2	— 0	50.0% 4	— 0	— 0	66.7% 3	0.0% 1
2025-26	36.2% 149	38.0% 108	32.4% 37	25.0% 4	36.5% 85	27.8% 36	46.4% 28	34.5% 110	50.0% 16
2024-25	45.8% 24	47.1% 17	33.3% 6	100.0% 1	26.7% 15	75.0% 4	80.0% 5	41.7% 12	50.0% 10
2023-24	23.1% 13	0.0% 6	40.0% 5	50.0% 2	30.0% 10	0.0% 1	0.0% 2	22.2% 9	25.0% 4
Playoffs (all)	50.0% 12	50.0% 10	50.0% 2	— 0	40.0% 5	80.0% 5	0.0% 2	50.0% 4	40.0% 5

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
Opponent	Record	Raw	Model	Blended	Unusual?
Wyatt Johnston	3–7	30.0%	38.0%	37.8%	normal luck (z -0.5)
Jack Eichel	2–5	28.6%	38.7%	38.5%	normal luck (z -0.5)
Connor McDavid	5–2	71.4%	40.4%	40.9%	a bit unusual (z 1.7)
Alexander Wennberg	4–3	57.1%	42.9%	43.1%	normal luck (z 0.8)
Ryan Poehling	3–3	50.0%	40.8%	40.9%	normal luck (z 0.5)
Christian Dvorak	2–4	33.3%	34.4%	34.4%	normal luck (z -0.1)
Ryan McLeod	2–3	40.0%	41.6%	41.5%	normal luck (z -0.1)
Mikael Granlund	3–2	60.0%	37.3%	37.5%	a bit unusual (z 1.0)
J.T. Compher	2–3	40.0%	37.0%	37.0%	normal luck (z 0.1)
Mikael Backlund	2–3	40.0%	35.0%	35.0%	normal luck (z 0.2)
Jordan Staal	1–3	25.0%	34.6%	34.5%	normal luck (z -0.4)
Mika Zibanejad	0–4	0.0%	33.7%	33.5%	a bit unusual (z -1.4)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
Date	Opp	FOW	Draws	FO%
2026-10-03	@ SJS	2	4	50.0%
2026-04-26	vs COL	1	2	50.0%
2026-04-21	@ COL	0	1	0.0%
2026-04-19	@ COL	1	2	50.0%
2026-04-16	@ CGY	1	2	50.0%
2026-04-14	@ VAN	0	1	0.0%
2026-04-11	vs EDM	2	3	66.7%
2026-03-28	vs UTA	0	1	0.0%
2026-03-09	@ CBJ	0	1	0.0%
2026-02-28	vs CGY	0	1	0.0%

Projected faceoffs won

2026-10-06 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (37%), Aleksander Barkov (34%)0.6 FOW 0–2
2026-10-10 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (39%), William Karlsson (36%)0.6 FOW 0–2

FAQ

What is Adrian Kempe's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Adrian Kempe's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Adrian Kempe win tonight?

When Adrian Kempe has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Adrian Kempe better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.