Draw Duel
Jansen Harkins faceoff stats, 2025-26
TBL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
50.2%
90%: 46.6%–53.9% vs an average regular, on 414 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.4%
95 won of 185 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.9% / 49.2%
88 strong-side, 61 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.3 FOW
2026-10-05 vs PHI: 1 draws at 52.2%, range 0–1
Where Harkins wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 46 | 20 | 43.5% |
| OZ right | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 36 | 22 | 61.1% |
| NZ left (def.) | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 30 | 18 | 60.0% |
| DZ right | 28 | 14 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 4 | 0.0% 3 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 51.4% 185 | 49.7% 173 | 77.8% 9 | 66.7% 3 | 44.9% 69 | 55.2% 58 | 55.2% 58 | 48.9% 88 | 49.2% 61 |
| 2024-25 | 53.4% 219 | 50.7% 152 | 100.0% 1 | 59.1% 66 | 51.5% 33 | 61.1% 72 | 49.1% 114 | 58.8% 80 | 42.9% 91 |
| 2023-24 | 100.0% 2 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 4 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 66.7% 3 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers | 6–4 | 60.0% | 53.1% | 53.2% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 4–5 | 44.4% | 45.2% | 45.1% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Tomas Hertl | 3–6 | 33.3% | 46.0% | 45.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 6–3 | 66.7% | 44.4% | 44.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Jack Drury | 1–6 | 14.3% | 44.7% | 44.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Aatu Räty | 2–5 | 28.6% | 40.9% | 40.7% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Cole Schwindt | 3–4 | 42.9% | 53.5% | 53.3% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Mikael Backlund | 1–6 | 14.3% | 49.5% | 49.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Ryan Hartman | 4–3 | 57.1% | 54.7% | 54.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| William Karlsson | 5–2 | 71.4% | 49.2% | 49.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Nicolas Roy | 3–3 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 52.9% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Joseph Veleno | 2–4 | 33.3% | 48.8% | 48.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ NYR | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs VGK | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ OTT | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs CGY | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | vs WPG | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | vs SEA | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | @ VAN | 3 | 12 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-26 | @ EDM | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-01-25 | @ CGY | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (48%), Noel Acciari (49%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (54%), Ryan Hartman (55%)0.3 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (46%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (42%)0.2 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Jansen Harkins's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jansen Harkins's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jansen Harkins win tonight?
When Jansen Harkins has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jansen Harkins better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.