Draw Duel
Mathew Barzal faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
42.5%
90%: 39.6%–45.4% vs an average regular, on 694 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
39.8%
210 won of 528 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
35.6% / 54.3%
295 strong-side, 94 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Barzal wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
| OZ right | 154 | 63 | 40.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 23 | 6 | 26.1% |
| Centre | 139 | 54 | 38.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 23 | 14 | 60.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
| DZ left | 35 | 24 | 68.6% |
| DZ right | 98 | 31 | 31.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.3%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 39.8% 528 | 40.4% 483 | 34.2% 38 | 28.6% 7 | 38.9% 180 | 39.5% 215 | 41.4% 133 | 35.6% 295 | 54.3% 94 |
| 2024-25 | 42.3% 52 | 42.3% 52 | — 0 | — 0 | 39.1% 23 | 50.0% 24 | 20.0% 5 | 48.4% 31 | 20.0% 5 |
| 2023-24 | 43.0% 114 | 43.0% 114 | — 0 | — 0 | 46.9% 49 | 45.7% 35 | 33.3% 30 | 48.7% 78 | 28.6% 14 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | 9–11 | 45.0% | 38.2% | 38.4% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4–12 | 25.0% | 40.8% | 40.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 4–12 | 25.0% | 38.9% | 38.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 6–9 | 40.0% | 42.1% | 42.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 8–7 | 53.3% | 39.2% | 39.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nico Hischier | 5–9 | 35.7% | 36.0% | 36.0% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 3–11 | 21.4% | 37.2% | 36.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Sean Couturier | 2–12 | 14.3% | 36.4% | 35.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| David Kampf | 2–11 | 15.4% | 37.5% | 37.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| J.T. Compher | 4–8 | 33.3% | 44.4% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Mark Scheifele | 7–5 | 58.3% | 45.3% | 45.6% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Sam Bennett | 5–7 | 41.7% | 46.9% | 46.8% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | vs CAR | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs OTT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs TOR | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PIT | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs FLA | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | @ SJS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | @ MTL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Mathew Barzal's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mathew Barzal's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mathew Barzal win tonight?
When Mathew Barzal has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mathew Barzal better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.