Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Mathieu Olivier faceoff stats, 2025-26

CBJ · R · Right shot · full player page

Model rating

37.4%

90%: 31.4%–43.8% vs an average regular, on 63 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

18.2%

2 won of 11 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

25.0% / 0.0%

8 strong-side, 1 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Olivier wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

— · 825% · 16— · 1— · 1— · 6— · 3— · 3— · 2— · 7
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Mathieu Olivier faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left8225.0%
OZ right16425.0%
NZ left (att.)100.0%
NZ right (att.)11100.0%
Centre6116.7%
NZ left (def.)3266.7%
NZ right (def.)3266.7%
DZ left2150.0%
DZ right7342.9%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2025-2618.2% 1122.2% 9— 00.0% 233.3% 60.0% 40.0% 125.0% 80.0% 1
2024-2538.9% 3638.7% 310.0% 150.0% 422.2% 1860.0% 1050.0% 842.1% 1938.5% 13
2023-2425.0% 1625.0% 16— 0— 028.6% 720.0% 525.0% 425.0% 833.3% 6

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Nazem Kadri2–166.7%39.5%39.6%normal luck (z 1.0)
Sam Carrick1–233.3%32.8%32.8%normal luck (z 0.0)
David Kampf1–150.0%34.6%34.6%normal luck (z 0.5)
Robby Fabbri0–20.0%37.1%37.0%a bit unusual (z -1.1)
Dylan Larkin0–20.0%33.2%33.1%normal luck (z -1.0)
Anthony Cirelli1–150.0%38.6%38.6%normal luck (z 0.3)
Jaret Anderson-Dolan0–10.0%46.2%46.1%normal luck (z -0.9)
Nico Hischier0–10.0%31.8%31.8%normal luck (z -0.7)
Morgan Frost0–10.0%37.9%37.8%normal luck (z -0.8)
Ryan Poehling1–0100.0%38.1%38.2%a bit unusual (z 1.3)
Noah Cates0–10.0%44.5%44.4%normal luck (z -0.9)
Mark Kastelic0–10.0%32.3%32.2%normal luck (z -0.7)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2026-03-10@ TBL010.0%
2026-03-02@ NYR010.0%
2026-02-28vs NYI010.0%
2026-02-26@ BOS010.0%
2026-01-31@ STL010.0%
2026-01-20vs OTT010.0%
2026-01-15vs VAN1250.0%
2026-01-13vs CGY11100.0%
2026-01-10@ COL010.0%
2026-01-03vs BUF010.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Mathieu Olivier's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Mathieu Olivier's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Mathieu Olivier win tonight?

When Mathieu Olivier has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Mathieu Olivier better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.