Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Samuelsson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Samuelsson's 2.0.
Mattias Samuelsson has the better number in 22 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: Power-play share 71.5%, Power-play time per game 2:42, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.6, Luck Meter +79, Hits 132.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.31
fantasy points per game
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.79 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.63 | 0.93 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 6G 5A, 39 SOG · Samuelsson 3G 7A, 13 SOG
Matthews blocked 0 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 5 of Matthews's.
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
18:58 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–12
- 52.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.5
- 58.2%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4–7 BUF | 1G 2A 3S | 0G 3A 0S |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4–3 BUF | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-24 | TOR 3–5 BUF | 1G 0A 4S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-15 | TOR 4–0 BUF | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-20 | TOR 6–3 BUF | 1G 0A 5S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-12-15 | TOR 5–3 BUF | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-12-21 | TOR 3–9 BUF | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-02-21 | TOR 6–3 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-12 | TOR 2–5 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-13 | TOR 2–5 BUF | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-03-02 | TOR 1–5 BUF | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mattias Samuelsson leads in 22 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 5–6. Matthews had 11 points (6 goals) and Samuelsson had 10 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →