Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Matt Grzelcyk
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Grzelcyk had 12 in 69 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Grzelcyk has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Grzelcyk's 1.7 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 30 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Goals 48, High-danger chances 57.5%, Transition attempts /60 2.12.
Grzelcyk's biggest edges: Hardest shot 96.7, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.040, On-ice PDO 1013.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -4.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Grzelcyk is cooling, −2:22 TOI a game.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Matt Grzelcyk
-4.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 6, Grzelcyk wins 0 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Grzelcyk |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.00 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.16 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | -0.18 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 0.92 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Grzelcyk
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 1G 19A, 43 SOG · Grzelcyk 2G 5A, 11 SOG
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
4:37 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–2
- 77.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.2
- 80.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Grzelcyk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | EDM 4–1 CHI | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-01 | EDM 3–2 CHI | 0G 3A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-09 | EDM 3–5 PIT | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-25 | EDM 4–0 PIT | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-05 | EDM 2–1 BOS | 0G 2A 7S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-21 | EDM 5–6 BOS | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-09 | EDM 3–2 BOS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-12-09 | EDM 2–3 BOS | 0G 2A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2021-11-11 | EDM 5–3 BOS | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2018-10-18 | EDM 3–2 BOS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2018-10-11 | EDM 1–4 BOS | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2018-02-20 | EDM 2–3 BOS | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Matt Grzelcyk
2games
1.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH0.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Matt Grzelcyk in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Grzelcyk had 12 in 69 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Matt Grzelcyk?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 30 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Grzelcyk done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 8–5. McDavid had 20 points (1 goals) and Grzelcyk had 7 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →