Who to start · 2025-26
Matthew Knies vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Knies projects to 2.06 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Knies had 66 points in 79 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Knies has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Knies's 1.4.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Knies's biggest edges: Luck Meter +36, Ascension score 56, On-ice PDO 1004.
Aho's biggest edges: Corsi 61.5%, Fenwick 60.3%, Scoring chances 57.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matthew Knies
2.06
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Matthew Knies has the edge.
| Points per game from | Knies | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Knies vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Knies 1G 4A, 14 SOG · Aho 6G 7A, 27 SOG
Knies's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 1–0 · Knies's defensive zone 0–0 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Knies's side)
15:13 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Knies's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–15
- 42.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.6
- 54.2%
- Goals
- 2–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Knies | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | TOR 3–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-12-04 | TOR 5–1 CAR | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-09 | TOR 4–5 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2025-04-13 | TOR 4–1 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-09 | TOR 3–6 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-24 | TOR 1–2 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-16 | TOR 4–5 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-30 | TOR 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 2A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Matthew Knies
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 10th-most FP to LWLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.4 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matthew Knies or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Knies projects to 2.06 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Knies had 66 points in 79 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matthew Knies or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Knies and Aho done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Knies's team went 3–6. Knies had 5 points (1 goals) and Aho had 13 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Knies or Aho?
- Against each other, Knies has won 1 and Aho 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →