Who to start · 2025-26
Mattias Samuelsson vs Morgan Rielly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61.
Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games.
This week Samuelsson has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Rielly has 1 left. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Rielly's 1.5.
Mattias Samuelsson has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +41, Hardest shot 98.1, Hits 132.
Rielly's biggest edges: Power-play share 59.5%, Offensive-zone time 43.7%, Offensive-zone start % 67.6%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mattias Samuelsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Samuelsson | Rielly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.93 | 0.67 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Samuelsson vs Rielly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Samuelsson 1G 7A, 10 SOG · Rielly 0G 5A, 22 SOG
Samuelsson blocked 1 of Rielly's shots; Rielly blocked 0 of Samuelsson's.
On the ice against each other (Samuelsson's side)
16:47 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Samuelsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–19
- 34.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 46.5%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Samuelsson | Rielly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | BUF 7–4 TOR | 0G 3A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-25 | BUF 3–4 TOR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0–4 TOR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-20 | BUF 3–6 TOR | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-12-15 | BUF 3–5 TOR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-12-21 | BUF 9–3 TOR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-02-21 | BUF 3–6 TOR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-04-12 | BUF 5–2 TOR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2022-03-13 | BUF 5–2 TOR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2022-03-02 | BUF 5–1 TOR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mattias Samuelsson or Morgan Rielly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mattias Samuelsson projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61. Samuelsson had 41 points in 78 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mattias Samuelsson or Morgan Rielly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mattias Samuelsson leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Samuelsson and Rielly done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Samuelsson's team went 5–5. Samuelsson had 8 points (1 goals) and Rielly had 5 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →