Draw Duel
Kirby Dach faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
44.3%
90%: 40.7%–48.0% vs an average regular, on 416 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
41.4%
48 won of 116 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
42.6% / 44.8%
54 strong-side, 29 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.6 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CAR: 1 draws at 43.8%, range 0–2
Where Dach wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 14 | 5 | 35.7% |
| OZ right | 22 | 6 | 27.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| Centre | 34 | 13 | 38.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| DZ right | 20 | 9 | 45.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L36.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L37.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L57.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L57.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L54.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 4 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 41.4% 116 | 40.4% 109 | 57.1% 7 | — 0 | 30.6% 36 | 44.2% 52 | 50.0% 28 | 42.6% 54 | 44.8% 29 |
| 2024-25 | 40.3% 238 | 39.6% 217 | 47.6% 21 | — 0 | 39.3% 84 | 40.4% 99 | 41.8% 55 | 39.2% 158 | 34.8% 23 |
| 2023-24 | 37.5% 8 | 37.5% 8 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 33.3% 6 | 50.0% 2 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 |
| Playoffs (all) | 52.0% 50 | 53.3% 45 | 40.0% 5 | — 0 | 50.0% 20 | 50.0% 24 | 66.7% 6 | 55.6% 27 | 25.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli | 12–11 | 52.2% | 44.1% | 44.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Jack McBain | 4–6 | 40.0% | 45.7% | 45.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Nick Paul | 3–7 | 30.0% | 42.1% | 41.9% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Matty Beniers | 4–5 | 44.4% | 48.2% | 48.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Shane Wright | 5–4 | 55.6% | 49.2% | 49.3% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Sean Monahan | 3–6 | 33.3% | 42.5% | 42.3% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Lars Eller | 3–6 | 33.3% | 43.2% | 43.0% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| John Beecher | 2–6 | 25.0% | 44.4% | 44.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Max Domi | 0–7 | 0.0% | 43.9% | 43.3% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Andrew Copp | 2–5 | 28.6% | 43.0% | 42.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Alex Turcotte | 4–2 | 66.7% | 43.2% | 43.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Quinton Byfield | 4–2 | 66.7% | 48.2% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PIT | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ TOR | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | @ CAR | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-25 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BUF | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ BUF | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | vs BUF | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-10 | vs BUF | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-05-08 | @ BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (38%), Sebastian Aho (43%)0.6 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (42%), Jack Drury (38%)0.6 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (43%), J.T. Compher (48%)0.6 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Kirby Dach's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Kirby Dach's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Kirby Dach win tonight?
When Kirby Dach has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Kirby Dach better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.