Draw Duel
Stefan Noesen faceoff stats, 2025-26
NJD · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
41.6%
90%: 36.5%–46.9% vs an average regular, on 233 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.5%
16 won of 33 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
42.9% / 60.0%
21 strong-side, 10 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Noesen wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| OZ right | 17 | 7 | 41.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| DZ left | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ right | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R33.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L33.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R34.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L34.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.0%
- Jack Drury NSH · L35.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L54.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L54.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L51.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R50.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 48.5% 33 | 64.3% 14 | 36.8% 19 | — 0 | 48.0% 25 | 42.9% 7 | 100.0% 1 | 42.9% 21 | 60.0% 10 |
| 2024-25 | 48.2% 85 | 48.3% 60 | 38.9% 18 | 71.4% 7 | 44.7% 47 | 47.6% 21 | 58.8% 17 | 47.9% 71 | 50.0% 6 |
| 2023-24 | 42.2% 109 | 41.1% 95 | 46.2% 13 | 100.0% 1 | 45.2% 62 | 35.3% 34 | 46.2% 13 | 52.2% 67 | 24.1% 29 |
| Playoffs (all) | 40.0% 5 | 25.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 25.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi | 2–3 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 44.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Ryan McLeod | 1–3 | 25.0% | 41.2% | 41.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Anton Lundell | 3–1 | 75.0% | 41.0% | 41.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Leo Carlsson | 1–3 | 25.0% | 47.6% | 47.4% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 2–2 | 50.0% | 43.6% | 43.6% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Noah Cates | 0–3 | 0.0% | 47.5% | 47.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Jake Evans | 1–2 | 33.3% | 44.2% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Blake Lizotte | 1–2 | 33.3% | 43.1% | 43.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Dylan Cozens | 2–1 | 66.7% | 39.0% | 39.2% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Nic Dowd | 0–3 | 0.0% | 45.5% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 1–2 | 33.3% | 41.9% | 41.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Sean Kuraly | 2–1 | 66.7% | 40.5% | 40.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | vs PHI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | @ PIT | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | vs UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-23 | @ NYI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-19 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | @ VGK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-14 | vs VAN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-13 | vs ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-11 | vs TBL | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Stefan Noesen's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Stefan Noesen's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Stefan Noesen win tonight?
When Stefan Noesen has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Stefan Noesen better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.