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Who to start · 2025-26

Auston Matthews vs Jake Guentzel

Auston MatthewsAuston MatthewsMaple Leafs · CentrevsJake GuentzelJake GuentzelLightning · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jake Guentzel's 2.20.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Guentzel had 88 in 81 games.

This week Matthews has 1 game left; Guentzel has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.5.

Jake Guentzel has the better number in 25 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Matthews's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.103, Faceoff win % 59.7%, Hardest shot 88.3.

Guentzel's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.6, Luck Meter +40, Corsi 53.3%.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Auston Matthews

2.31

fantasy points per game

Jake Guentzel

2.20

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMatthewsGuentzel
Goals (+2)0.790.88
Assists (+1)0.380.58
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.360.27
Hits (+0.1)0.070.05
Blocks (+0.5)0.630.24

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Matthews vs Guentzel

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MatthewsGuentzel
9Team record in 20 meetings11
17Points in those games13

Matthews 6G 11A, 83 SOG · Guentzel 6G 7A, 59 SOG

2Faceoffs against each other3

Matthews's offensive zone 0–1 · neutral 0–0 · Matthews's defensive zone 2–2 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

0Hits on each other2
2Shots blocked by the other0

Matthews blocked 2 of Guentzel's shots; Guentzel blocked 0 of Matthews's.

1Penalties drawn off the other0

On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)

8:39 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side

Shot attempts
7–10
41.2%
Expected goals
0.3–0.4
44.2%
Goals
0–1

Games against each other

Games between Auston Matthews and Jake Guentzel
DateScoreMatthewsGuentzel
2026-03-07TOR 2–5 TBL0G 0A 6S1G 1A 2S
2026-02-25TOR 2–4 TBL0G 1A 2S0G 0A 5S
2025-12-08TOR 2–0 TBL1G 0A 8S0G 0A 4S
2025-01-20TOR 5–3 TBL1G 1A 5S0G 0A 1S
2024-11-30TOR 5–3 TBL0G 2A 2S1G 0A 6S
2024-10-21TOR 5–2 TBL1G 0A 6S0G 0A 3S
2024-03-24TOR 1–2 CAR0G 1A 7S0G 1A 3S
2024-03-16TOR 4–5 CAR0G 0A 7S0G 2A 5S
2023-11-25TOR 2–3 PIT0G 0A 3S1G 0A 6S
2022-11-26TOR 4–1 PIT1G 2A 6S0G 1A 1S
2022-11-15TOR 5–2 PIT0G 2A 4S0G 0A 2S
2022-11-11TOR 2–4 PIT0G 0A 3S1G 0A 2S

Latest 12 of 20 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MatthewsGuentzel

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Auston Matthews

3games (1 left)

2.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 pts
    vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Jake Guentzel

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
    Opp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Auston Matthews or Jake Guentzel in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Jake Guentzel's 2.20. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Guentzel had 88 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Auston Matthews or Jake Guentzel?
On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 25 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Matthews and Guentzel done against each other?
In 20 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 9–11. Matthews had 17 points (6 goals) and Guentzel had 13 (6 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Guentzel?
Against each other, Matthews has won 2 and Guentzel 3 of their 5 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →