Who to start · 2025-26
Brandon Montour vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.03 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brandon Montour's 1.74.
Montour had 32 points in 64 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Montour has 3 games left; Carlson has 3 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Carlson for 5.5 to Montour's 5.0 over the games left.
John Carlson has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Montour's biggest edges: Ascension score 67, Hits 75, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.071.
Carlson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +9, High-danger chances 54.5%, Expected goals 54.2%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, John Carlson rates ahead, +6.2 to +3.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Montour is steady; Carlson is steady, −3:19 TOI a game.
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 1 PPP, 13 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 23 SOG.
Seattle Kraken · Tampa Bay Lightning · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brandon Montour
+3.4
category z-score total
John Carlson
+6.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), John Carlson has the edge (Montour wins 1, Carlson wins 5 of 6 categories).
| Category | Montour | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Assists / game | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.21 | -0.05 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.34 | 2.41 |
| Hits / game | 1.07 | 0.59 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Montour vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Montour 1G 9A, 55 SOG · Carlson 4G 18A, 62 SOG
Montour blocked 5 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 2 of Montour's.
On the ice against each other (Montour's side)
11:24 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Montour's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–10
- 54.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.5
- 52.6%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Montour | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | SEA 3–4 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-27 | SEA 5–1 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-09 | SEA 2–4 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-23 | SEA 0–3 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-24 | FLA 3–2 WSH | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-02-08 | FLA 4–2 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-04-08 | FLA 4–2 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-15 | FLA 5–2 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 7S |
| 2022-05-13 · PO | FLA 4–3 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-05-11 · PO | FLA 5–3 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-05-09 · PO | FLA 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-05-07 · PO | FLA 1–6 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 29 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Brandon Montour
3games
5.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs DET1.7 ptsOpp allows 14th-most FP to Dvs Daniil Tarasov (.895)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs UTA1.7 ptsOpp allows 16th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs MIN1.6 ptsOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
John Carlson
3games
5.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 @ VGK1.8 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to Dvs Carter Hart (.891)
- Fri, Oct 23 @ COL1.8 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brandon Montour or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.03 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brandon Montour's 1.74. Montour had 32 points in 64 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brandon Montour or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Montour and Carlson done against each other?
- In 29 games against each other in our data, Montour's team went 16–13. Montour had 10 points (1 goals) and Carlson had 22 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →