Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Tage Thompson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.37 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.13.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games.
This week Nelson has no games left; Thompson has no games left.
They split the 36 stats both are ranked on 18–18.
Nelson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +15, Goals above expected +1.1, Scoring chances 58.3%.
Thompson's biggest edges: Ascension score 51, Hardest shot 97.9, Hits 85.
Head to head on the dot, Nelson leads Thompson 27–22.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 2 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.13
fantasy points per game
Tage Thompson
2.37
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tage Thompson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Thompson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 5G 3A, 48 SOG · Thompson 6G 5A, 68 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 11–9 · neutral 12–9 · Nelson's defensive zone 4–4 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 2 of Thompson's shots; Thompson blocked 1 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
8:23 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–13
- 38.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.6
- 25.9%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Thompson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | COL 6–3 BUF | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2025-10-13 | COL 3–1 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1–7 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3–0 BUF | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-01 | NYI 4–3 BUF | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-03-14 | NYI 0–4 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-10-21 | NYI 1–3 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 10S |
| 2023-10-14 | NYI 3–2 BUF | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-03-25 | NYI 0–2 BUF | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-07 | NYI 3–2 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-19 | NYI 2–3 BUF | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-04-23 | NYI 3–5 BUF | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Faceoffs: Nelson vs Thompson
Model: Brock Nelson wins 54.0% of draws against Tage Thompson on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| Nelson at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 56% | 51% | 57% | 52% | 54% | 57% | 52% | 59% | 53% |
| Road | 55% | 49% | 56% | 50% | 54% | 56% | 50% | 57% | 52% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Nelson 20–16 (55.6%). Blended with the model: 54.1%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STLOpp allows 12th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Tage Thompson
2games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Tage Thompson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.37 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.13. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Tage Thompson?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 18–18 across 36 stats where both qualify.
- How have Nelson and Thompson done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 9–11. Nelson had 8 points (5 goals) and Thompson had 11 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Thompson?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 27 and Thompson 22 of their 49 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →