Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Matthew Tkachuk
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.39.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Tkachuk had 34 in 31 games.
This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Tkachuk has 3 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Tkachuk for 7.6 to McDavid's 6.1 over the games left.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.6, 20+ mph bursts 681, Transition attempts /60 2.12.
Tkachuk's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.5, Forecheck xG /60 0.41, Luck Meter +22.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to +9.6 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Tkachuk is rising, 11 P in last 5 (1.15/GP before).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 7 PPP, 19 SOG.
Edmonton Oilers · Florida Panthers · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
+21.0
category z-score total
Matthew Tkachuk
+9.6
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 5, Tkachuk wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | McDavid | Tkachuk |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| Assists / game | 1.52 | 0.88 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.84 | 0.05 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| Shots on goal / game | 3.25 | 2.57 |
| Hits / game | 0.85 | 1.13 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Tkachuk
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 30G 47A, 168 SOG · Tkachuk 17G 24A, 133 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · McDavid's defensive zone 1–0 (2022-23)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
7:35 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–6
- 57.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.2
- 63.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Tkachuk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | EDM 0–4 FLA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-06-17 · PO | EDM 1–5 FLA | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-06-14 · PO | EDM 2–5 FLA | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-06-12 · PO | EDM 5–4 FLA | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2025-06-09 · PO | EDM 1–6 FLA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2025-06-06 · PO | EDM 4–5 FLA | 0G 3A 7S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-06-04 · PO | EDM 4–3 FLA | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-12-16 | EDM 5–6 FLA | 0G 3A 0S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-06-24 · PO | EDM 1–2 FLA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-06-21 · PO | EDM 5–1 FLA | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-06-18 · PO | EDM 5–3 FLA | 2G 2A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-06-15 · PO | EDM 8–1 FLA | 1G 3A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 48 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McDavid
3games (2 left)
6.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs MINOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Matthew Tkachuk
3games
7.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 @ OTT2.5 ptsOpp allows 14th-most FP to LWLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ CHI2.7 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Matthew Tkachuk in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.39. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Tkachuk had 34 in 31 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Matthew Tkachuk?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Tkachuk done against each other?
- In 48 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 24–24. McDavid had 77 points (30 goals) and Tkachuk had 41 (17 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Tkachuk?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 1 and Tkachuk 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →