Who to start · 2025-26
Matthew Tkachuk vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.39.
Tkachuk had 34 points in 31 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Tkachuk has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Tkachuk for 7.6 to MacKinnon's 5.9 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Tkachuk's biggest edges: Ascension score 62, Forecheck xG /60 0.41, Penalty minutes 48.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 455, Top skating speed 24.8, Hardest shot 91.0.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +9.6 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Tkachuk is rising, 11 P in last 5 (1.15/GP before); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 7 PPP, 19 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
Florida Panthers · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matthew Tkachuk
+9.6
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Tkachuk wins 2, MacKinnon wins 4 of 6 categories).
| Category | Tkachuk | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.57 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 1.13 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Tkachuk vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Tkachuk 7G 22A, 75 SOG · MacKinnon 14G 15A, 108 SOG
Tkachuk's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–1 · Tkachuk's defensive zone 1–0 (2018-19)
Tkachuk blocked 0 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Tkachuk's.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Tkachuk | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | FLA 1–3 COL | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-11-23 | FLA 4–7 COL | 0G 2A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-02-10 | FLA 4–0 COL | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-06 | FLA 8–4 COL | 1G 3A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-02-11 | FLA 3–5 COL | 0G 2A 7S | 2G 1A 6S |
| 2023-01-10 | FLA 5–4 COL | 2G 0A 7S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-13 | CGY 0–3 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2022-03-05 | CGY 4–3 COL | 0G 3A 2S | 1G 0A 9S |
| 2019-12-09 | CGY 5–4 COL | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 8S |
| 2019-11-19 | CGY 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2019-10-03 | CGY 3–5 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2019-04-19 · PO | CGY 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 2S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Matthew Tkachuk
3games
7.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 @ OTT2.5 ptsOpp allows 14th-most FP to LWLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ CHI2.7 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
5.9proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matthew Tkachuk or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.39. Tkachuk had 34 points in 31 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matthew Tkachuk or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Tkachuk and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Tkachuk's team went 11–11. Tkachuk had 29 points (7 goals) and MacKinnon had 29 (14 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Tkachuk or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Tkachuk has won 1 and MacKinnon 1 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →