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Who to start · 2025-26

John Tavares vs Nathan MacKinnon

John TavaresJohn TavaresMaple Leafs · CentrevsNathan MacKinnonNathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80.

Tavares had 71 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Tavares has 1 game left; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Tavares's 1.7.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Tavares's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.027, Faceoff win % 57.5%, Draw Equity /100 +0.071.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: Plus/minus +57, Transition attempts /60 1.83, Scoring chances 59.3%.

Head to head on the dot, MacKinnon leads Tavares 36–33.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

John Tavares

1.80

fantasy points per game

Nathan MacKinnon

3.32

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromTavaresMacKinnon
Goals (+2)0.671.49
Assists (+1)0.490.87
Power-play points (+0.5)0.110.21
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.240.46
Hits (+0.1)0.090.09
Blocks (+0.5)0.220.21

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Tavares vs MacKinnon

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

TavaresMacKinnon
8Team record in 16 meetings8
11Points in those games24

Tavares 3G 8A, 32 SOG · MacKinnon 7G 17A, 64 SOG

33Faceoffs against each other36

Tavares's offensive zone 11–12 · neutral 12–9 · Tavares's defensive zone 10–15 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

0Hits on each other3
3Shots blocked by the other1

Tavares blocked 3 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 1 of Tavares's.

0Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (Tavares's side)

6:26 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Tavares's side

Shot attempts
4–2
66.7%
Expected goals
0.2–0.0
93.2%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between John Tavares and Nathan MacKinnon
DateScoreTavaresMacKinnon
2026-01-25TOR 1–4 COL0G 0A 1S0G 1A 2S
2026-01-12TOR 4–3 COL0G 0A 3S0G 3A 3S
2025-03-19TOR 2–1 COL0G 1A 2S0G 1A 6S
2025-03-08TOR 4–7 COL2G 0A 3S2G 0A 3S
2024-02-24TOR 4–3 COL0G 0A 2S0G 3A 2S
2024-01-13TOR 3–5 COL0G 0A 0S1G 1A 5S
2023-03-15TOR 1–2 COL0G 0A 1S0G 1A 2S
2022-12-31TOR 6–2 COL0G 2A 0S0G 0A 3S
2022-01-08TOR 4–5 COL0G 0A 3S1G 0A 12S
2021-12-01TOR 8–3 COL1G 2A 2S0G 2A 5S
2019-12-04TOR 1–3 COL0G 0A 8S1G 1A 2S
2019-11-23TOR 5–3 COL0G 0A 1S1G 0A 4S

Latest 12 of 16 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

TavaresMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

John Tavares

3games (1 left)

1.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.7 pts
    vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Nathan MacKinnon

2games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
    Opp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start John Tavares or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Tavares's 1.80. Tavares had 71 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, John Tavares or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Tavares and MacKinnon done against each other?
In 16 games against each other in our data, Tavares's team went 8–8. Tavares had 11 points (3 goals) and MacKinnon had 24 (7 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Tavares or MacKinnon?
Against each other, Tavares has won 33 and MacKinnon 36 of their 69 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →