Who to start · 2025-26
Matt Grzelcyk vs Rasmus Dahlin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Rasmus Dahlin projects to 2.37 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72.
Grzelcyk had 12 points in 69 games; Dahlin had 74 in 77 games.
This week Grzelcyk has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Dahlin has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Dahlin for 4.7 to Grzelcyk's 1.7 over the games left.
Rasmus Dahlin has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Grzelcyk's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.040, Offensive-zone start % 54.9%, Ascension score 39.
Dahlin's biggest edges: Goals 19, Luck Meter +46, Plus/minus +18.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Rasmus Dahlin rates ahead, +11.1 to -4.2 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Grzelcyk is cooling, −2:22 TOI a game; Dahlin is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.63 (was 3.47).
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 6 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 19 SOG.
Buffalo Sabres · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matt Grzelcyk
-4.2
category z-score total
Rasmus Dahlin
+11.1
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Rasmus Dahlin has the edge (Grzelcyk wins 0, Dahlin wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | Grzelcyk | Dahlin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Assists / game | 0.16 | 0.61 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.18 | 0.17 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 0.92 | 2.70 |
| Hits / game | 0.38 | 1.00 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Grzelcyk vs Dahlin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Grzelcyk 2G 9A, 51 SOG · Dahlin 1G 10A, 62 SOG
Grzelcyk blocked 2 of Dahlin's shots; Dahlin blocked 0 of Grzelcyk's.
On the ice against each other (Grzelcyk's side)
7:25 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Grzelcyk's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–7
- 36.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.2
- 44.8%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Grzelcyk | Dahlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | CHI 3–9 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-03-27 | PIT 3–7 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 3S |
| 2025-01-17 | PIT 5–2 BUF | 0G 2A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-10-16 | PIT 6–5 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-03-19 | BOS 7–0 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2022-12-31 | BOS 3–4 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2022-11-12 | BOS 3–1 BUF | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-28 | BOS 5–0 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-01 | BOS 4–3 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-11-24 | BOS 5–1 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-10-22 | BOS 4–1 BUF | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2021-05-01 | BOS 6–2 BUF | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 25 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Matt Grzelcyk
2games
1.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI0.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH0.8 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Rasmus Dahlin
2games
4.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 vs PHI2.6 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ WSH2.1 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matt Grzelcyk or Rasmus Dahlin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Rasmus Dahlin projects to 2.37 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matt Grzelcyk's 0.72. Grzelcyk had 12 points in 69 games; Dahlin had 74 in 77 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matt Grzelcyk or Rasmus Dahlin?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Rasmus Dahlin leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Grzelcyk and Dahlin done against each other?
- In 25 games against each other in our data, Grzelcyk's team went 20–5. Grzelcyk had 11 points (2 goals) and Dahlin had 11 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →