Draw Duel
Brandon Hagel faceoff stats, 2025-26
TBL · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
39.7%
90%: 34.5%–45.1% vs an average regular, on 160 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
41.3%
26 won of 63 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.0% / 16.7%
28 strong-side, 24 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.6 FOW
2026-10-05 vs PHI: 1 draws at 42.7%, range 0–2
Where Hagel wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
| OZ right | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| DZ right | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R31.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R48.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 41.3% 63 | 48.8% 41 | 16.7% 6 | 31.3% 16 | 30.0% 20 | 58.8% 17 | 38.5% 26 | 50.0% 28 | 16.7% 24 |
| 2024-25 | 34.8% 23 | 33.3% 15 | 33.3% 6 | 50.0% 2 | 31.3% 16 | 50.0% 4 | 33.3% 3 | 40.0% 10 | 30.8% 13 |
| 2023-24 | 41.0% 61 | 37.5% 56 | 66.7% 3 | 100.0% 2 | 40.5% 42 | 33.3% 12 | 57.1% 7 | 65.4% 26 | 21.4% 28 |
| Playoffs (all) | 30.0% 10 | 20.0% 5 | 50.0% 4 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 6 | 33.3% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 33.3% 6 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier | 3–5 | 37.5% | 32.0% | 32.1% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jake Evans | 2–2 | 50.0% | 34.8% | 35.0% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–3 | 25.0% | 41.5% | 41.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Anton Lundell | 1–2 | 33.3% | 38.8% | 38.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Nick Suzuki | 1–2 | 33.3% | 40.6% | 40.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Dylan Strome | 1–2 | 33.3% | 39.5% | 39.5% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Connor McDavid | 2–1 | 66.7% | 41.4% | 41.5% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 1–2 | 33.3% | 34.4% | 34.4% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Barrett Hayton | 1–1 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 47.8% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Logan Stankoven | 1–1 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 45.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Nicolas Roy | 0–2 | 0.0% | 43.5% | 43.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jack Roslovic | 1–1 | 50.0% | 38.6% | 38.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs WSH | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NYR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ MTL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MTL | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs NYR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs OTT | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs MIN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ EDM | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (39%), Noel Acciari (38%)0.6 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (45%), Ryan Hartman (45%)0.6 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (37%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (32%)0.5 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Brandon Hagel's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Brandon Hagel's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Brandon Hagel win tonight?
When Brandon Hagel has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Brandon Hagel better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.