Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Auston Matthews vs Sebastian Aho

Auston MatthewsAuston MatthewsMaple Leafs · CentrevsSebastian AhoSebastian AhoHurricanes · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.

This week Matthews has 1 game left; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Aho's 2.2.

Sebastian Aho has the better number in 23 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Matthews's biggest edges: Blocked shots 81, On-ice PDO 1016, Faceoff win % 59.7%.

Aho's biggest edges: Corsi 61.5%, Fenwick 60.3%, Scoring chances 57.5%.

Head to head on the dot, Matthews leads Aho 47–41.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Auston Matthews

2.31

fantasy points per game

Sebastian Aho

2.01

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMatthewsAho
Goals (+2)0.790.72
Assists (+1)0.380.59
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.04
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.360.25
Hits (+0.1)0.070.07
Blocks (+0.5)0.630.16

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Matthews vs Aho

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MatthewsAho
9Team record in 19 meetings10
20Points in those games17

Matthews 13G 7A, 78 SOG · Aho 8G 9A, 55 SOG

47Faceoffs against each other41

Matthews's offensive zone 10–9 · neutral 18–14 · Matthews's defensive zone 19–18 (2018-19 to 2025-26)

1Hits on each other1
0Shots blocked by the other1

Matthews blocked 0 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Matthews's.

1Penalties drawn off the other0

On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)

7:34 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side

Shot attempts
9–10
47.4%
Expected goals
0.6–0.3
67.2%
Goals
2–1

Games against each other

Games between Auston Matthews and Sebastian Aho
DateScoreMatthewsAho
2025-12-04TOR 5–1 CAR1G 0A 5S0G 1A 2S
2025-11-09TOR 4–5 CAR1G 1A 4S1G 0A 5S
2025-04-13TOR 4–1 CAR1G 0A 2S1G 0A 4S
2025-02-22TOR 6–3 CAR1G 0A 2S0G 1A 1S
2025-01-09TOR 3–6 CAR1G 0A 2S0G 0A 4S
2024-03-24TOR 1–2 CAR0G 1A 7S1G 0A 1S
2024-03-16TOR 4–5 CAR0G 0A 7S2G 1A 4S
2023-12-30TOR 2–3 CAR0G 0A 5S1G 2A 4S
2023-03-25TOR 3–5 CAR2G 0A 15S1G 1A 3S
2023-03-17TOR 5–2 CAR1G 0A 5S0G 0A 4S
2022-11-06TOR 3–1 CAR0G 1A 0S0G 0A 0S
2022-02-07TOR 4–3 CAR2G 0A 7S0G 0A 3S

Latest 12 of 19 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MatthewsAho

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Auston Matthews

3games (1 left)

2.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 pts
    vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Sebastian Aho

3games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs FLA
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs WSH
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 pts
    Opp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Auston Matthews or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Auston Matthews or Sebastian Aho?
On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 23 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Matthews and Aho done against each other?
In 19 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 9–10. Matthews had 20 points (13 goals) and Aho had 17 (8 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Aho?
Against each other, Matthews has won 47 and Aho 41 of their 88 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →