Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Connor McDavid vs Michael Amadio

Connor McDavidOilers · Centre
vs
Michael AmadioSenators · Right wing
Rising14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before)
Cooling−2:10 TOI a game

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael Amadio's 1.16.

McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Amadio had 35 in 81 games.

This week McDavid has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Amadio has 3 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project McDavid for 6.1 to Amadio's 3.0 over the games left.

Connor McDavid has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

McDavid's biggest edges: Power-play share 88.5%, Power-play time per game 3:35, Offensive-zone start % 65.6%.

Amadio's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.009, Hits 105, Hardest shot 87.7.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Connor McDavid rates ahead, +21.0 to -1.8 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: McDavid is rising, 14 P in last 5 (2.00/GP before); Amadio is cooling, −2:10 TOI a game.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 8 PPP, 22 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 9 SOG.

Edmonton Oilers · Ottawa Senators · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Connor McDavid

+21.0

category z-score total

Michael Amadio

-1.8

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Connor McDavid has the edge (McDavid wins 5, Amadio wins 1 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryMcDavidAmadio
Goals / game0.620.20
Assists / game1.520.24
Plus/minus / game0.840.02
Power-play points / game0.740.00
Shots on goal / game3.251.12
Hits / game0.851.06

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: McDavid vs Amadio

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

McDavidAmadio
17Team record in 24 meetings7
43Points in those games10

McDavid 15G 28A, 90 SOG · Amadio 7G 3A, 24 SOG

4Faceoffs against each other2

McDavid's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · McDavid's defensive zone 3–2 (2018-19 to 2023-24)

2Hits on each other0

On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)

18:21 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side

Shot attempts
17–11
60.7%
Expected goals
0.7–0.4
61.2%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Connor McDavid and Michael Amadio
DateScoreMcDavidAmadio
2026-03-03EDM 5–4 OTT0G 2A 4S1G 0A 1S
2025-10-21EDM 3–2 OTT1G 0A 3S0G 0A 0S
2024-11-19EDM 5–2 OTT2G 1A 5S0G 0A 2S
2024-02-06EDM 1–3 VGK1G 0A 8S0G 0A 2S
2023-11-28EDM 5–4 VGK1G 2A 2S1G 1A 1S
2023-05-10 · POEDM 4–1 VGK0G 2A 4S0G 0A 0S
2023-05-08 · POEDM 1–5 VGK0G 0A 3S0G 0A 1S
2023-05-06 · POEDM 5–1 VGK2G 1A 3S0G 0A 0S
2023-05-03 · POEDM 4–6 VGK0G 2A 4S1G 0A 1S
2023-03-28EDM 7–4 VGK0G 3A 0S1G 0A 1S
2023-03-25EDM 3–4 VGK0G 1A 2S0G 0A 4S
2023-01-14EDM 4–3 VGK0G 1A 8S0G 0A 0S

Latest 12 of 24 meetings.

Faceoffs: McDavid vs Amadio

Model: Connor McDavid wins 50.1% of draws against Michael Amadio on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.

Connor McDavid's predicted win % against Michael Amadio at each dot, in McDavid's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
McDavid atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home51%48%52%49%50%52%49%54%50%
Road50%47%51%48%50%51%48%52%49%

Head-to-head 2023-24: McDavid 1–0 (100.0%). Blended with the model: 50.2%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 1.0); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.

McDavid faceoffs · Amadio faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

McDavidAmadio

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Connor McDavid

3games (2 left)

6.1proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Oct 20 vs MIN
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs CAR2.9 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −3.0 win%Likely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs TOR3.2 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)

Michael Amadio

3games

3.0proj. ESPN default pts

  • Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA1.0 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs SJSB2B1.1 pts
    Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Yaroslav Askarov (.884)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR1.0 pts
    Opp allows 7th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Connor McDavid or Michael Amadio in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.76 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael Amadio's 1.16. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Amadio had 35 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Connor McDavid or Michael Amadio?
On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have McDavid and Amadio done against each other?
In 24 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 17–7. McDavid had 43 points (15 goals) and Amadio had 10 (7 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Amadio?
Against each other, McDavid has won 4 and Amadio 2 of their 6 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →