Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Michael Amadio vs Nathan MacKinnon

Michael AmadioSenators · Right wing
vs
Nathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre
Cooling−2:10 TOI a game
CoolingOn-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88)

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael Amadio's 1.16.

Amadio had 35 points in 81 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Amadio has 3 games left with 2 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 5.9 to Amadio's 3.0 over the games left.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Amadio's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.009, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.46, Blocked shots 51.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 71.8%, Power-play share 79.5%, Power-play time per game 4:13.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -1.8 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Amadio is cooling, −2:10 TOI a game; MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).

  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 0 PPP, 9 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.

Ottawa Senators · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Michael Amadio

-1.8

category z-score total

Nathan MacKinnon

+14.0

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Amadio wins 1, MacKinnon wins 5 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryAmadioMacKinnon
Goals / game0.200.64
Assists / game0.240.96
Plus/minus / game0.020.43
Power-play points / game0.000.30
Shots on goal / game1.124.38
Hits / game1.060.68

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Amadio vs MacKinnon

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

AmadioMacKinnon
8Team record in 17 meetings9
2Points in those games17

Amadio 1G 1A, 13 SOG · MacKinnon 10G 7A, 69 SOG

0Faceoffs against each other3

Amadio's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–1 · Amadio's defensive zone 0–2 (2019-20 to 2020-21)

On the ice against each other (Amadio's side)

17:56 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Amadio's side

Shot attempts
11–13
45.8%
Expected goals
0.2–0.6
30.8%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Michael Amadio and Nathan MacKinnon
DateScoreAmadioMacKinnon
2026-01-28OTT 5–2 COL0G 0A 0S0G 0A 1S
2026-01-08OTT 2–8 COL0G 0A 0S1G 3A 5S
2025-03-20OTT 1–5 COL0G 0A 0S1G 0A 3S
2024-10-27OTT 4–5 COL0G 0A 2S1G 1A 5S
2023-11-04VGK 7–0 COL0G 1A 0S0G 0A 4S
2023-02-27VGK 0–3 COL0G 0A 1S1G 0A 6S
2023-01-02VGK 3–2 COL1G 0A 1S1G 1A 8S
2022-10-22VGK 2–3 COL0G 0A 2S1G 0A 7S
2022-02-26VGK 2–3 COL0G 0A 1S1G 0A 1S
2021-03-14LAK 1–4 COL0G 0A 1S1G 0A 3S
2021-03-12LAK 0–2 COL0G 0A 0S1G 0A 3S
2021-01-21LAK 4–2 COL0G 0A 0S1G 1A 5S

Latest 12 of 17 meetings.

Faceoffs: Amadio vs MacKinnon

Model: Michael Amadio wins 49.1% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (R shot vs R shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.

Michael Amadio's predicted win % against Nathan MacKinnon at each dot, in Amadio's attacking direction, at home and on the road.
Amadio atOZ leftOZ rightNZ left (att.)NZ right (att.)CentreNZ left (def.)NZ right (def.)DZ leftDZ right
Home41%56%42%57%49%42%57%43%58%
Road40%55%41%56%49%41%56%42%57%

They have not faced each other on a draw in the seasons we track.

Amadio faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

AmadioMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Michael Amadio

3games

3.0proj. ESPN default pts

  • Wed, Oct 21 vs FLA1.0 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs SJSB2B1.1 pts
    Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Yaroslav Askarov (.884)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs NYR1.0 pts
    Opp allows 7th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)

Nathan MacKinnon

4games (2 left)

5.9proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Oct 19 @ PHI
    Opp allows 10th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
  • Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 16th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 pts
    Opp allows 4th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.4 pts
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Juuse Saros (.893)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Michael Amadio or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Michael Amadio's 1.16. Amadio had 35 points in 81 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Michael Amadio or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Amadio and MacKinnon done against each other?
In 17 games against each other in our data, Amadio's team went 8–9. Amadio had 2 points (1 goals) and MacKinnon had 17 (10 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Amadio or MacKinnon?
Against each other, Amadio has won 0 and MacKinnon 3 of their 3 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →