Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McMichael vs Macklin Celebrini
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32.
McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games.
This week McMichael has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Celebrini has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Celebrini for 5.2 to McMichael's 2.3 over the games left.
Macklin Celebrini has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McMichael's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.0, Shorthanded points 1, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.056.
Celebrini's biggest edges: Goals above expected +5.9, Offensive-zone time 44.5%, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.45.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Macklin Celebrini rates ahead, +13.2 to -0.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McMichael is steady, ixG/60 0.46 (was 0.99); Celebrini is surging, ixG/60 1.94 (was 1.10).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • Celebrini has played 8 of the Sharks' 10 games since Oct 1 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 5 G, 9 A, 8 PPP, 37 SOG.
St. Louis Blues · San Jose Sharks · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McMichael
-0.4
category z-score total
Macklin Celebrini
+13.2
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Macklin Celebrini has the edge (McMichael wins 0, Celebrini wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | McMichael | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| Assists / game | 0.42 | 0.95 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.12 | 0.61 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.64 | 3.89 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 0.64 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McMichael vs Celebrini
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McMichael 0G 0A, 6 SOG · Celebrini 1G 2A, 16 SOG
McMichael's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 1–3 · McMichael's defensive zone 0–2 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McMichael's side)
9:38 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from McMichael's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–8
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.4
- 54.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McMichael | Celebrini |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | WSH 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2025-12-03 | WSH 7–1 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-15 | WSH 5–1 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
Faceoffs: McMichael vs Celebrini
Model: Connor McMichael wins 46.4% of draws against Macklin Celebrini on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McMichael at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 49% | 43% | 50% | 44% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 51% | 45% |
| Road | 48% | 42% | 49% | 43% | 46% | 49% | 43% | 50% | 44% |
Head-to-head 2025-26: McMichael 2–6 (25.0%). Blended with the model: 46.1%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
McMichael faceoffs · Celebrini faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McMichael
3games (2 left)
2.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPGOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.2 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Macklin Celebrini
4games (2 left)
5.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ TOROpp allows 13th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ MTLB2B
- Thu, Oct 22 @ OTT2.9 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ BOS2.4 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McMichael or Macklin Celebrini in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Macklin Celebrini projects to 3.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32. McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Celebrini had 115 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McMichael or Macklin Celebrini?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Macklin Celebrini leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McMichael and Celebrini done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, McMichael's team went 2–2. McMichael had 0 points (0 goals) and Celebrini had 3 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McMichael or Celebrini?
- Against each other, McMichael has won 2 and Celebrini 6 of their 8 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →