Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McMichael vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32.
McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week McMichael has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 6.0 to McMichael's 2.3 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 31 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McMichael's biggest edges: Blocked shots 45, Shorthanded points 1, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.056.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 46.6%, Goals above expected +4.3, Forecheck xG /60 0.34.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to -0.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McMichael is steady, ixG/60 0.46 (was 0.99); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
St. Louis Blues · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McMichael
-0.4
category z-score total
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (McMichael wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).
| Category | McMichael | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.20 | 0.64 |
| Assists / game | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.10 | 0.43 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.64 | 4.38 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 0.68 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McMichael vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McMichael 3G 1A, 18 SOG · MacKinnon 6G 8A, 34 SOG
McMichael's offensive zone 1–2 · neutral 0–1 · McMichael's defensive zone 1–1 (2021-22 to 2025-26)
McMichael blocked 2 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of McMichael's.
On the ice against each other (McMichael's side)
8:42 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from McMichael's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–10
- 37.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.7
- 39.2%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McMichael | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | STL 1–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 3A 4S |
| 2026-03-22 | WSH 2–3 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-19 | WSH 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 1A 10S |
| 2024-11-21 | WSH 1–2 COL | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-15 | WSH 5–2 COL | 2G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-13 | WSH 3–6 COL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2024-01-24 | WSH 2–6 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 4G 1A 8S |
| 2021-10-19 | WSH 6–3 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
Faceoffs: McMichael vs MacKinnon
Model: Connor McMichael wins 45.4% of draws against Nathan MacKinnon on average (L shot vs R shot). Opposite-handed, so they are both strong or both weak at every dot and the dot barely matters.
| McMichael at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 41% | 49% | 42% | 50% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 43% | 51% |
| Road | 40% | 47% | 41% | 48% | 45% | 41% | 48% | 42% | 50% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: McMichael 2–3 (40.0%). Blended with the model: 45.3%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z -0.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
McMichael faceoffs · MacKinnon faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McMichael
3games (2 left)
2.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPGOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.2 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
6.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.5 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McMichael or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32. McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McMichael or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 31 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McMichael and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, McMichael's team went 2–6. McMichael had 4 points (3 goals) and MacKinnon had 14 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McMichael or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, McMichael has won 2 and MacKinnon 4 of their 6 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →