Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Mikael Granlund
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.14 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Granlund's 1.94.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Granlund had 41 in 58 games.
This week Carlsson has 3 games left with 1 tough matchup; Granlund has 3 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Carlsson for 6.4 to Granlund's 5.2 over the games left.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 65.8%, Plus/minus +4, 20+ mph bursts 197.
Granlund's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.072, Forecheck xG /60 0.40, Faceoff win % 49.7%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Leo Carlsson rates ahead, +5.0 to +2.6 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Carlsson is falling, On-ice xGF/60 1.95 (was 4.15); Granlund is steady, −2:42 5v5 TOI.
- • 2026-27 so far: 8 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 7 PPP, 9 SOG.
- • Granlund has played 7 of the Ducks' 8 games since Oct 2 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 7 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 4 PPP, 14 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
+5.0
category z-score total
Mikael Granlund
+2.6
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Leo Carlsson has the edge (Carlsson wins 5, Granlund wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | Carlsson | Granlund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| Assists / game | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.14 | -0.20 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.19 | 2.01 |
| Hits / game | 0.22 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Granlund
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 4G 1A, 12 SOG · Granlund 3G 3A, 19 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 1–5 · Carlsson's defensive zone 0–1 (2023-24 to 2024-25)
Carlsson blocked 1 of Granlund's shots; Granlund blocked 1 of Carlsson's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
55:35 at 5-on-5 over 15 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 74–52
- 58.7%
- Expected goals
- 4.1–2.4
- 63.7%
- Goals
- 3–5
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Granlund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | ANA 3–4 DAL | 2G 0A 3S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2025-02-04 | ANA 2–1 DAL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-22 | ANA 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2024-10-12 | ANA 2–0 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-02-29 | ANA 6–4 SJS | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2023-11-12 | ANA 4–1 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
Faceoffs: Carlsson vs Granlund
Model: Leo Carlsson wins 44.7% of draws against Mikael Granlund on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Carlsson at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 51% | 37% | 52% | 39% | 45% | 52% | 39% | 53% | 40% |
| Road | 50% | 36% | 51% | 37% | 44% | 51% | 37% | 52% | 38% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2024-25: Carlsson 2–7 (22.2%). Blended with the model: 44.3%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.4); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 ANA | 58 | +5.1 | +0.38 | – (too few games together) |
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Leo Carlsson
4games (3 left)
6.4proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ NYROpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ NJD2.2 ptsOpp allows 16th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 24 @ PHI2.4 ptsOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Mikael Granlund
4games (3 left)
5.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ NYROpp allows 5th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ NJD1.8 ptsOpp allows 16th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 24 @ PHI1.9 ptsOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Mikael Granlund in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.14 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikael Granlund's 1.94. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Granlund had 41 in 58 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Mikael Granlund?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Granlund done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 5–1. Carlsson had 5 points (4 goals) and Granlund had 6 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Granlund?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 2 and Granlund 7 of their 9 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →