Who to start · 2025-26
Matthew Tkachuk vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Tkachuk projects to 2.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.05.
Tkachuk had 34 points in 31 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Tkachuk has 3 games left with 1 soft matchup; Cates has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Tkachuk for 7.6 to Cates's 2.2 over the games left.
Noah Cates has the better number in 18 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Tkachuk's biggest edges: Ascension score 62, Corsi 56.1%, Offensive-zone time 47.4%.
Cates's biggest edges: Blocked shots 51, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Faceoffs won 467.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Matthew Tkachuk rates ahead, +9.6 to -1.3 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Tkachuk is rising, 11 P in last 5 (1.15/GP before); Cates is falling, ixG/60 0.70 (was 1.03).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 7 PPP, 19 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 10 SOG.
- • Last 10 games (Oct 1–Oct 19): 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 9 SOG.
Florida Panthers · Philadelphia Flyers · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matthew Tkachuk
+9.6
category z-score total
Noah Cates
-1.3
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Matthew Tkachuk has the edge (Tkachuk wins 5, Cates wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | Tkachuk | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.39 | 0.13 |
| Assists / game | 0.88 | 0.24 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.55 | 0.06 |
| Shots on goal / game | 2.57 | 1.31 |
| Hits / game | 1.13 | 1.06 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Tkachuk vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Tkachuk 2G 8A, 24 SOG · Cates 3G 3A, 9 SOG
Tkachuk's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Tkachuk's defensive zone 0–0 (2022-23)
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Tkachuk | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | FLA 3–4 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-05 | FLA 7–5 PHI | 1G 4A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-09 | FLA 4–3 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-24 | FLA 4–1 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-07 | FLA 1–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-02-06 | FLA 1–2 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-21 | FLA 3–6 PHI | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2022-10-27 | FLA 3–4 PHI | 0G 1A 7S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-10-19 | FLA 4–3 PHI | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Matthew Tkachuk
3games
7.6proj. ESPN default pts
- Wed, Oct 21 @ OTT2.5 ptsOpp allows 14th-most FP to LWLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ CHI2.7 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Noah Cates
3games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 vs COLOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
- Wed, Oct 21 @ BUF1.1 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 vs ANA1.1 ptsOpp allows 10th-most FP to LWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matthew Tkachuk or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Tkachuk projects to 2.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.05. Tkachuk had 34 points in 31 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matthew Tkachuk or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 18 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Tkachuk and Cates done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Tkachuk's team went 4–5. Tkachuk had 10 points (2 goals) and Cates had 6 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Tkachuk or Cates?
- Against each other, Tkachuk has won 1 and Cates 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →