Who to start · 2025-26
Anthony Cirelli vs Dylan Larkin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Anthony Cirelli's 1.62.
Cirelli had 52 points in 71 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week Cirelli has no games left; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to Cirelli's 0.0.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 18 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Cirelli's biggest edges: High-danger chances 56.6%, Scoring chances 55.6%, On-ice PDO 1052.
Larkin's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.39, Hardest shot 91.7, Power-play share 66.3%.
Head to head on the dot, Larkin leads Cirelli 74–57.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Anthony Cirelli
1.69
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cirelli | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.65 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cirelli vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cirelli 3G 7A, 40 SOG · Larkin 9G 10A, 90 SOG
Cirelli's offensive zone 19–27 · neutral 25–20 · Cirelli's defensive zone 13–27 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
Cirelli blocked 4 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 1 of Cirelli's.
On the ice against each other (Cirelli's side)
10:26 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Cirelli's side
- Shot attempts
- 18–9
- 66.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.4
- 69.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cirelli | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | TBL 4–3 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-28 | TBL 6–3 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-17 | TBL 1–2 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3–4 DET | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-08 | TBL 6–3 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-01-25 | TBL 0–2 DET | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-18 | TBL 5–1 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-04-01 | TBL 2–4 DET | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 2A 7S |
| 2024-01-21 | TBL 1–2 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-10-14 | TBL 4–6 DET | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2023-04-13 | TBL 5–0 DET | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-02-25 | TBL 3–0 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 6S |
Latest 12 of 27 meetings.
Faceoffs: Cirelli vs Larkin
Model: Anthony Cirelli wins 45.5% of draws against Dylan Larkin on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Cirelli at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 53% | 37% | 54% | 38% | 46% | 54% | 38% | 56% | 39% |
| Road | 52% | 36% | 53% | 37% | 45% | 53% | 37% | 54% | 38% |
Head-to-head 2023-24 to 2025-26: Cirelli 25–42 (37.3%). Blended with the model: 44.5%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z -1.3); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Anthony Cirelli
2games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSHOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 2nd-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Anthony Cirelli or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Anthony Cirelli's 1.62. Cirelli had 52 points in 71 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Anthony Cirelli or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 18 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cirelli and Larkin done against each other?
- In 27 games against each other in our data, Cirelli's team went 16–11. Cirelli had 10 points (3 goals) and Larkin had 19 (9 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Cirelli or Larkin?
- Against each other, Cirelli has won 57 and Larkin 74 of their 131 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →