Who to start · 2025-26
Clayton Keller vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Clayton Keller's 2.15.
Keller had 88 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Keller has 2 games left with 1 tough matchup; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Keller for 2.9 ESPN points to MacKinnon's 2.2.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Keller's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.037, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.19, Ascension score 50.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Faceoffs won 681, Transition attempts /60 1.83.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Clayton Keller
2.15
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Keller | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.59 | 1.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Keller vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Keller 5G 12A, 84 SOG · MacKinnon 14G 24A, 135 SOG
Keller's offensive zone 2–3 · neutral 2–0 · Keller's defensive zone 0–0 (2019-20 to 2025-26)
Keller blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Keller's.
On the ice against each other (Keller's side)
9:34 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Keller's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–18
- 43.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.6
- 42.8%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Keller | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | UTA 0–1 COL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-21 | UTA 4–3 COL | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 8S |
| 2025-10-09 | UTA 1–2 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-12-27 | UTA 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 3A 4S |
| 2024-12-12 | UTA 4–1 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-10-24 | UTA 1–5 COL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-02-18 | ARI 3–4 COL | 0G 0A 5S | 1G 1A 9S |
| 2023-12-27 | ARI 5–4 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-23 | ARI 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-30 | ARI 4–3 COL | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 7S |
| 2023-03-26 | ARI 3–4 COL | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-24 | ARI 1–3 COL | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 2A 4S |
Latest 12 of 31 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Clayton Keller
3games (2 left)
2.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.4 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Clayton Keller or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Clayton Keller's 2.15. Keller had 88 points in 82 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Clayton Keller or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Keller and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 31 games against each other in our data, Keller's team went 9–22. Keller had 17 points (5 goals) and MacKinnon had 38 (14 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Keller or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Keller has won 4 and MacKinnon 3 of their 7 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →