Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McMichael vs Jaden Schwartz
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jaden Schwartz projects to 1.40 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32.
McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Schwartz had 26 in 50 games.
This week McMichael has 2 games left with 2 tough matchups; Schwartz has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project McMichael for 2.3 to Schwartz's 2.2 over the games left.
Connor McMichael has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
McMichael's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 174, Top skating speed 23.0, Penalty minutes 30.
Schwartz's biggest edges: Goals above expected +0.5, Luck Meter +44, Ascension score 60.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Jaden Schwartz rates ahead, +0.1 to -0.4 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: McMichael is steady, ixG/60 0.46 (was 0.99); Schwartz is steady, 0 P in last 5 (0.65/GP before).
- • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 12 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 3 G, 3 A, 1 PPP, 17 SOG.
St. Louis Blues · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McMichael
-0.4
category z-score total
Jaden Schwartz
+0.1
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Jaden Schwartz has the edge (McMichael wins 2, Schwartz wins 4 of 6 categories).
| Category | McMichael | Schwartz |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Assists / game | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.64 | 1.66 |
| Hits / game | 0.49 | 0.66 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: McMichael vs Schwartz
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McMichael 1G 1A, 18 SOG · Schwartz 2G 4A, 28 SOG
McMichael's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · McMichael's defensive zone 0–0 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McMichael's side)
9:15 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from McMichael's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–5
- 68.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 83.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McMichael | Schwartz |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | STL 1–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-01-27 | WSH 1–5 SEA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-10-21 | WSH 4–1 SEA | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-09 | WSH 4–2 SEA | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-23 | WSH 3–0 SEA | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-11 | WSH 1–4 SEA | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-03-05 | WSH 5–2 SEA | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2021-11-21 | WSH 2–5 SEA | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 3A 5S |
Faceoffs: McMichael vs Schwartz
Model: Connor McMichael wins 44.3% of draws against Jaden Schwartz on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| McMichael at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 47% | 40% | 49% | 41% | 45% | 49% | 41% | 50% | 43% |
| Road | 46% | 39% | 47% | 40% | 44% | 47% | 40% | 48% | 41% |
Head-to-head 2025-26: McMichael 1–0 (100.0%). Blended with the model: 44.5%. The record is a bit unusual for this matchup (z 1.1); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
McMichael faceoffs · Schwartz faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Connor McMichael
3games (2 left)
2.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPGOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.2 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Jaden Schwartz
4games (2 left)
2.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to LWLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL1.1 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH1.2 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McMichael or Jaden Schwartz in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jaden Schwartz projects to 1.40 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Connor McMichael's 1.32. McMichael had 46 points in 78 games; Schwartz had 26 in 50 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McMichael or Jaden Schwartz?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McMichael leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McMichael and Schwartz done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, McMichael's team went 4–4. McMichael had 2 points (1 goals) and Schwartz had 6 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McMichael or Schwartz?
- Against each other, McMichael has won 1 and Schwartz 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →