Who to start · 2026-27
Ivar Stenberg vs Tyler Toffoli
In 2026-27, Ivar Stenberg scored 1.38 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.37.
Stenberg had 12 points in 22 games; Toffoli had 13 in 22 games.
This week Stenberg has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project Toffoli for 1.3 to Stenberg's 1.2 over the games left.
Tyler Toffoli has the better number in 19 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Stenberg's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 37, Ice time per game 16:38, Ice-time share 27.0%.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.35, Luck Meter +32, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Tyler Toffoli rates ahead, -0.6 to -2.0 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Stenberg is surging, ixG/60 1.39 (was 0.82); Toffoli is rising, ixG/60 1.20 (was 0.79).
- • Ivar Stenberg is an NHL rookie: this is his first season.
- • Stenberg, last 10 games (Oct 27–Nov 14): 3 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 20 SOG.
- • Toffoli, last 10 games (Oct 27–Nov 14): 2 G, 2 A, 2 PPP, 21 SOG.
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Fantasy value: your scoring
Under Standard (6 categories), Tyler Toffoli has the edge (Stenberg wins 1, Toffoli wins 4 of 6 categories).
| Category | Stenberg | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Assists / game | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Plus/minus / game | -0.50 | -0.18 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.73 | 2.18 |
| Hits / game | 0.23 | 0.41 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Stenberg vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2026-27 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Stenberg blocked 0 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Stenberg's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
49:44 at 5-on-5 over 8 games, 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 55–44
- 55.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.7–2.1
- 45.2%
- Goals
- 2–2
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below
Every stat, side by side (continued)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
Chemistry as teammates
How their expected-goal share at 5v5 changed together vs apart (shrunk for sample size), and how closely their DraftKings points moved game to game (raw, that season only; for forward linemates the typical value is about .28).
| Season | 5v5 min together | xG% lift | xGF/60 lift | DK correlation (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 SJS | 55 | −0.4 | −0.13 | .45(−.43 to .89), 6 GP |
This week's schedule
Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Ivar Stenberg
4games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Nov 9 vs NYI
- Wed, Nov 11 vs PITOpp allows 5th-most FP to LWLikely vs Sergei Murashov (.893)
- Sat, Nov 14 @ UTAOpp allows 15th-most FP to LWLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.872)
Tyler Toffoli
4games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Nov 9 vs NYI
- Wed, Nov 11 vs PITOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Sergei Murashov (.893)
- Sat, Nov 14 @ UTAOpp allows 7th-most FP to CLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.872)
Player data stories
How the game changed, told through the numbers.
- In 2022-23, Four NHL Players Wore a Number in the 90s for Every One in No. 9 The count was 53 to 13, and the incomplete 2025-26 rosters show the same split, 51 to 12.
- The 1,000-Game Club Had Its Biggest Year. Getting In Is No Easier. Seventeen players reached 1,000 NHL games in 2025-26, more than in any season before, in the biggest league the NHL has had.
- Only 14 NHL Defencemen Still Score Like Ken Daneyko A stay-at-home defenceman stays back to defend and leaves the scoring to others.
- How Much Lighter Did the NHL Really Get? Teams write down NHL weights.
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivar Stenberg or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- In 2026-27, Ivar Stenberg scored 1.38 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.37. Stenberg had 12 points in 22 games; Toffoli had 13 in 22 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivar Stenberg or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2026-27 numbers, Tyler Toffoli leads in 19 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →