Who to start · 2025-26
Jaden Schwartz vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jaden Schwartz projects to 1.40 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.39.
Schwartz had 26 points in 50 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Schwartz has 3 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Buchnevich has 3 left with 2 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project Schwartz for 3.7 to Buchnevich's 3.5 over the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Schwartz's biggest edges: Plus/minus +5, Luck Meter +44, On-ice PDO 1036.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Sequence xG 52.5%, Expected goals 52.5%, Scoring chances 50.7%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Pavel Buchnevich rates ahead, +0.8 to +0.1 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: Schwartz is steady, 0 P in last 5 (0.65/GP before); Buchnevich is surging, ixG/60 1.13 (was 0.74).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 3 G, 3 A, 1 PPP, 17 SOG.
- • Buchnevich has played 7 of the Blues' 8 games since Oct 2 (in and out of the lineup).
- • 2026-27 so far: 7 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 9 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · St. Louis Blues · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jaden Schwartz
+0.1
category z-score total
Pavel Buchnevich
+0.8
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Pavel Buchnevich has the edge (Schwartz wins 4, Buchnevich wins 2 of 6 categories).
| Category | Schwartz | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Assists / game | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Shots on goal / game | 1.66 | 1.60 |
| Hits / game | 0.66 | 0.39 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: Schwartz vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Schwartz 7G 6A, 41 SOG · Buchnevich 5G 10A, 25 SOG
Schwartz's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 0–0 · Schwartz's defensive zone 0–0 (2023-24)
On the ice against each other (Schwartz's side)
13:29 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Schwartz's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–13
- 51.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.6
- 33.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Schwartz | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | COL 6–1 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-04 | SEA 2–3 STL | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-02-26 | SEA 1–5 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-08 | SEA 4–3 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-04-12 | SEA 4–3 STL | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-02-25 | SEA 2–7 STL | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-10-08 | SEA 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-14 | SEA 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-01-26 | SEA 3–4 STL | 0G 1A 3S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-14 | SEA 1–2 STL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-28 | SEA 5–3 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-20 | SEA 5–2 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Faceoffs: Schwartz vs Buchnevich
Model: Jaden Schwartz wins 59.8% of draws against Pavel Buchnevich on average (L shot vs L shot). Same-handed, so the dot decides who is on his strong side; the gap between the left and right dots is the real matchup.
| Schwartz at | OZ left | OZ right | NZ left (att.) | NZ right (att.) | Centre | NZ left (def.) | NZ right (def.) | DZ left | DZ right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 66% | 52% | 67% | 54% | 60% | 67% | 54% | 68% | 55% |
| Road | 65% | 51% | 66% | 52% | 60% | 66% | 52% | 67% | 53% |
Head-to-head 2023-24: Schwartz 2–1 (66.7%). Blended with the model: 59.8%. The record is normal luck for this matchup (z 0.2); pair-specific edges are about ±2 points, so the model carries most of the weight.
Schwartz faceoffs · Buchnevich faceoffs · how the model works
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Jaden Schwartz
4games (3 left)
3.7proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 6th-most FP to LWLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL1.1 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH1.2 pts
Pavel Buchnevich
3games
3.5proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs WPG1.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
- Thu, Oct 22 vs VGK1.1 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sat, Oct 24 vs CAR1.1 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jaden Schwartz or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jaden Schwartz projects to 1.40 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.39. Schwartz had 26 points in 50 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jaden Schwartz or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Pavel Buchnevich leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Schwartz and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Schwartz's team went 9–9. Schwartz had 13 points (7 goals) and Buchnevich had 15 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Schwartz or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, Schwartz has won 2 and Buchnevich 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →