Who to start · 2026-27

Jake Guentzel vs Matthew Tkachuk

Jake GuentzelLightning · Centre
vs
Matthew TkachukPanthers · Left wing
Surging9 P in last 5 (0.95/GP before)
RisingixG/60 1.22 (was 0.78)

In 2026-27, Jake Guentzel scored 2.53 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.38.

Guentzel had 24 points in 20 games; Tkachuk had 29 in 21 games.

This week Guentzel has no games left; Tkachuk has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. In ESPN default points scoring we project Tkachuk for 1.9 to Guentzel's 0.0 over the games left.

Jake Guentzel has the better number in 19 of the 30 stats both are ranked on.

Guentzel's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.2, Blocked shots 10, Faceoffs won 48.

Tkachuk's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.06, Penalty minutes 32, Forecheck xG /60 0.53.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Matthew Tkachuk rates ahead, +7.0 to +6.6 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Guentzel is surging, 9 P in last 5 (0.95/GP before); Tkachuk is rising, ixG/60 1.22 (was 0.78).

  • • Guentzel, last 10 games (Oct 24–Nov 14): 5 G, 8 A, 4 PPP, 27 SOG.
  • • Tkachuk, last 10 games (Oct 25–Nov 14): 1 G, 13 A, 7 PPP, 21 SOG.

Tampa Bay Lightning · Florida Panthers · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Jake Guentzel

+6.6

category z-score total

Matthew Tkachuk

+7.0

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Matthew Tkachuk has the edge (Guentzel wins 3, Tkachuk wins 3 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryGuentzelTkachuk
Goals / game0.550.19
Assists / game0.651.19
Plus/minus / game0.700.10
Power-play points / game0.400.71
Shots on goal / game2.702.10
Hits / game0.651.95

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Tkachuk

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

GuentzelTkachuk
9Team record in 22 meetings13
18Points in those games18

Guentzel 10G 8A, 65 SOG · Tkachuk 5G 13A, 53 SOG

0Hits on each other2
1Shots blocked by the other0

Guentzel blocked 1 of Tkachuk's shots; Tkachuk blocked 0 of Guentzel's.

1Penalties drawn off the other0

On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)

1:20 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side

Shot attempts
0–8
0.0%
Expected goals
0.0–0.2
0.0%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Jake Guentzel and Matthew Tkachuk
DateScoreGuentzelTkachuk
2026-02-05TBL 6–1 FLA1G 0A 1S0G 0A 3S
2025-04-30 · POTBL 3–6 FLA1G 0A 4S0G 1A 2S
2025-04-28 · POTBL 2–4 FLA0G 1A 1S0G 0A 0S
2025-04-26 · POTBL 5–1 FLA1G 2A 5S1G 0A 2S
2025-04-24 · POTBL 0–2 FLA0G 0A 0S0G 0A 1S
2025-04-22 · POTBL 2–6 FLA1G 0A 6S2G 1A 3S
2024-12-23TBL 4–0 FLA1G 0A 2S0G 0A 3S
2024-12-22TBL 2–4 FLA0G 1A 3S0G 1A 2S
2024-03-14CAR 4–0 FLA0G 1A 3S0G 0A 1S
2024-02-14PIT 2–5 FLA0G 1A 3S1G 2A 2S
2024-01-26PIT 2–3 FLA1G 0A 6S0G 1A 2S
2023-12-08PIT 1–3 FLA0G 0A 4S0G 0A 2S

Latest 12 of 22 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

GuentzelTkachuk

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs, Usage, Special teams & discipline, Luck & trend, NHL EDGE tracking continue below

Every stat, side by side (continued)

GuentzelTkachuk

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Nov 9 to Nov 15. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Tampa Bay Lightning logo

Jake Guentzel

3games (0 left)

0.0proj. ESPN default pts

Florida Panthers logo

Matthew Tkachuk

4games (1 left)

1.9proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Nov 10 @ CBJ
    Opp allows 13th-most FP to LWLikely vs Cam Talbot (.909)
  • Thu, Nov 12 vs DET
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs John Gibson (.862)
  • Sat, Nov 14 @ STL
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to LWLikely vs Joel Hofer (.921)
  • Sun, Nov 15 @ DALB2B1.9 pts
    Opp allows 4th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Casey DeSmith (.894)

Player data stories

How the game changed, told through the numbers.

All NHL data stories

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Jake Guentzel or Matthew Tkachuk in fantasy hockey?
In 2026-27, Jake Guentzel scored 2.53 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Matthew Tkachuk's 2.38. Guentzel had 24 points in 20 games; Tkachuk had 29 in 21 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Matthew Tkachuk?
On 2026-27 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 19 of 30 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Guentzel and Tkachuk done against each other?
In 22 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 9–13. Guentzel had 18 points (10 goals) and Tkachuk had 18 (5 goals).

2026-27 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →