Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

John Carlson vs Tomas Hertl

John CarlsonJohn CarlsonLightning · DefencevsTomas HertlTomas HertlGolden Knights · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.

Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.

This week Carlson has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.9.

Tomas Hertl has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Carlson's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.7, Luck Meter +33, Plus/minus +9.

Hertl's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010, Hits 114, Penalty minutes 39.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

John Carlson

2.10

fantasy points per game

Tomas Hertl

1.88

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromCarlsonHertl
Goals (+2)0.370.63
Assists (+1)0.610.37
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.17
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.230.27
Hits (+0.1)0.040.14
Blocks (+0.5)0.760.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

John Carlson and Tomas Hertl have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

CarlsonHertl

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

John Carlson

2games (1 left)

1.9proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.9 pts
    Schedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)

Tomas Hertl

3games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs CHI
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
  • Fri, Oct 2 vs ANA
    Likely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 pts
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start John Carlson or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, John Carlson or Tomas Hertl?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →