Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Luke Hughes vs Nathan MacKinnon

Luke HughesDevils · Defence
vs
Nathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre
SteadyPP1 in 5 of last 5 (was 10 of 20)
CoolingOn-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88)

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Luke Hughes's 1.37.

Hughes had 35 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Hughes has 2 games left with 1 soft matchup; MacKinnon has 2 left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 6.0 to Hughes's 3.3 over the games left.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Hughes's biggest edges: Ascension score 76, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.23, Shorthanded points 0.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Luck Meter +52, On-ice PDO 1054.

In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +4.1 in summed category z-scores.

Role trend over the last 5 games: Hughes is steady, PP1 in 5 of last 5 (was 10 of 20); MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88).

  • • 2026-27 so far: 9 GP, 3 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 28 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.

New Jersey Devils · Colorado Avalanche · Who should I start? · Compare other players

Fantasy value: your scoring

Luke Hughes

+4.1

category z-score total

Nathan MacKinnon

+14.0

category z-score total

Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (Hughes wins 0, MacKinnon wins 6 of 6 categories).

Per-stat breakdown under Standard (6 categories)
CategoryHughesMacKinnon
Goals / game0.180.64
Assists / game0.310.96
Plus/minus / game-0.040.43
Power-play points / game0.160.30
Shots on goal / game2.554.38
Hits / game0.260.68

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.

Head-to-head: Hughes vs MacKinnon

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

HughesMacKinnon
3Team record in 7 meetings4
2Points in those games9

Hughes 0G 2A, 10 SOG · MacKinnon 6G 3A, 34 SOG

0Hits on each other1
0Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (Hughes's side)

20:22 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Hughes's side

Shot attempts
22–21
51.2%
Expected goals
1.0–1.0
49.3%
Goals
2–0

Games against each other

Games between Luke Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon
DateScoreHughesMacKinnon
2026-10-20NJD 4–3 COL0G 0A 4S0G 0A 5S
2025-10-28NJD 4–8 COL0G 1A 1S2G 1A 5S
2025-10-26NJD 4–3 COL0G 0A 0S1G 0A 4S
2025-02-26NJD 1–5 COL0G 1A 3S2G 1A 7S
2024-12-08NJD 0–4 COL0G 0A 1S0G 0A 6S
2024-02-06NJD 5–3 COL0G 0A 0S0G 0A 4S
2023-11-07NJD 3–6 COL0G 0A 1S1G 1A 3S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

HughesMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.

Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring

Luke Hughes

3games (2 left)

3.3proj. ESPN default pts

  • Tue, Oct 20 vs COL
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
  • Thu, Oct 22 vs ANA1.5 pts
    Opp allows 16th-most FP to DLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
  • Sat, Oct 24 vs LAK1.8 pts
    Opp allows 7th-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)

Nathan MacKinnon

4games (2 left)

6.0proj. ESPN default pts

  • Mon, Oct 19 @ PHI
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
  • Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 16th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Juuse Saros (.893)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Luke Hughes or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Luke Hughes's 1.37. Hughes had 35 points in 68 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Luke Hughes or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Hughes and MacKinnon done against each other?
In 7 games against each other in our data, Hughes's team went 3–4. Hughes had 2 points (0 goals) and MacKinnon had 9 (6 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →