Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Shea Theodore
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Shea Theodore's 1.52.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Theodore had 39 in 70 games.
This week MacKinnon has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Theodore has 2 left. In ESPN default points scoring we project MacKinnon for 6.0 to Theodore's 3.1 over the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, Hits 64, On-ice PDO 1054.
Theodore's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.016, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.15, High-danger chances 57.3%.
In standard categories (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT), the default in Who Should I Start, Nathan MacKinnon rates ahead, +14.0 to +4.5 in summed category z-scores.
Role trend over the last 5 games: MacKinnon is cooling, On-ice xGF/60 2.51 (was 3.88); Theodore is cooling, 1 P in last 5 (0.55/GP before).
- • 2026-27 so far: 10 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 2 PPP, 44 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 11 GP, 2 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 23 SOG.
- • Last 10 games (Oct 2–Oct 20): 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 22 SOG.
Colorado Avalanche · Vegas Golden Knights · Who should I start? · Compare other players
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
+14.0
category z-score total
Shea Theodore
+4.5
category z-score total
Under Standard (6 categories), Nathan MacKinnon has the edge (MacKinnon wins 5, Theodore wins 1 of 6 categories).
| Category | MacKinnon | Theodore |
|---|---|---|
| Goals / game | 0.64 | 0.16 |
| Assists / game | 0.96 | 0.32 |
| Plus/minus / game | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Power-play points / game | 0.30 | 0.08 |
| Shots on goal / game | 4.38 | 1.96 |
| Hits / game | 0.68 | 0.02 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your scoring choice is shared with Who Should I Start: saved on this device, and on your account when you are signed in.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Theodore
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 8G 24A, 144 SOG · Theodore 1G 18A, 84 SOG
MacKinnon blocked 3 of Theodore's shots; Theodore blocked 15 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
47:35 at 5-on-5 over 6 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 60–38
- 61.2%
- Expected goals
- 2.5–1.1
- 70.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Theodore |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-10-31 | COL 4–2 VGK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-08 | COL 3–2 VGK | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-27 | COL 2–1 VGK | 0G 0A 10S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-09 | COL 4–8 VGK | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 3A 1S |
| 2024-04-14 | COL 3–4 VGK | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-11-04 | COL 0–7 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2023-02-27 | COL 3–0 VGK | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 36 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Oct 19 to Oct 25. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections cover the games left: Edgehalla's rest-of-season rates per game, adjusted for each opponent's scoring allowed, in ESPN default points.
Scored in ESPN default points (G 2, A 1, PPP 0.5, SHP 0.5, SOG 0.1, HIT 0.1, BLK 0.5). Use your league's scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
4games (2 left)
6.0proj. ESPN default pts
- Mon, Oct 19 @ PHIOpp allows 11th-most FP to CLikely vs Joseph Woll (.899)
- Tue, Oct 20 @ NJDB2B
- Fri, Oct 23 vs TBL2.5 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Sun, Oct 25 @ NSH3.5 pts
Shea Theodore
3games (2 left)
3.1proj. ESPN default pts
- Tue, Oct 20 vs TBLOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Thu, Oct 22 @ STL1.6 pts
- Sat, Oct 24 @ CBJ1.5 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Shea Theodore in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.08 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Shea Theodore's 1.52. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Theodore had 39 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Shea Theodore?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Theodore done against each other?
- In 36 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 18–18. MacKinnon had 32 points (8 goals) and Theodore had 19 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →